World Cup mid-term break

Graphic by Irish Independent

We are now halfway through the world cup cycle with a Lions tour and an Irish development tour to Georgia and Portugal on the short term horizon. With about 15 Irish senior players expected to tour with the Lions, what is effectively a second XV will represent Ireland on the summer tour. It is thus a good time to look at the depth chart and age profile of the players likely to be in contention for our 2027 world cup squad.

The first thing to be said about the age profile is that players age differently and the demands of different positions vary. Sexton and Healy played on until they were 38 and 37, respectively. The first thing to go is often sheer speed, and it is true that Ireland have lacked a real flyer like Bielle-Biarrey or Darcy Graham. But not every player has to be a sprinter. And if the adage “if your good enough, you’re old enough” applies, so does the reverse. Why drop someone who is still worth their place in the squad just because of their age? The Irish player management protocols may also help to extend the careers of key players.

Bundee Aki will be 37 at the next world cup, but so far, he doesn’t seem to have lost any speed. He is also, perhaps, the only Irish player who might fit the growing trend hybrid players who can play in the forwards or backs, especially in a 6:2 bench split. It is not difficult to see him coming on at open side for an injured or tired Van der Flier for the last 20 minutes of a test match. He has often joined a maul before!

But if we take age 35 to be a generic cut off point for most players in most positions, then players like Aki, Lowe, McCloskey, Gibson-Park, Conan, Beirne, Henderson, Bealham, and Herring must be a doubt for out 2027 world cup squad. Of course, if you are world class now, you are unlikely not to be good enough to make the squad in 2027. Conversely, however, some players may lose their edge before age 35. Henshaw looked like he may have lost a yard of pace in this year’s 6 Nations, while McCloskey, Henderson and Herring may be on their way out the door already. On the other hand, 35 is not old for a tight head, and Bealham has been playing better than ever.

But the Ireland team seems to have fallen some way below their peak in 2023/24, and we can’t afford any further drop off in the performance of key players. We need a few young guns to come through with the potential to be world class sooner rather than later, not just to replace aging players, but as cover for injuries and fatigue, and to challenge incumbents for their spot.

What has changed in recent years is that players deemed good enough to amass over 10 caps in the past are no longer considered good enough to even make the squad. Consider the following players still playing but no longer selected by Ireland (caps in brackets): Joey Carbery (37), Jordan Larmour (32), Kieran Marmion (28), John Ryan (24), Ross Byrne (22), Niall Scannell (20), Ultan Dillane (19), Luke McGrath (19), Quinn Roux (16), Kieran Treadwell (11), John Cooney (11), Jack Carty (11). Some are now coming towards the end of their careers, but all were dropped while still in their prime.

So, we need to think in terms of not just replacing players past their prime, but of challenging players who are still playing as well as ever. If Ireland are to progress further, we need better players in almost every position. So, what are the key weaknesses which need to be addressed?

Traditionally we have lacked the 150 KG behemoths at prop and lock, but Bernard Jackman argues that Size matters less as new laws favour fleet of foot and aerial dominance. Having a relatively immobile 147 Kg prop, Uini Atonio, didn’t do France any harm, however, and Irish sides have struggled against the like of Frans Malherbe (141 Kg.), Will Skelton (135 kg.), Romain Taofifenua (135 Kg.), and Will Stuart (132 kg.), and RG Snyman (131kg.) proves you can be both heavy and mobile.

Most of the heavyweight rugby players in the world come from the Pacific islands and South African gene pools, so with the increase in the residency qualification to 5 years, the importation of more “project” players is not a practical option. However, it is noticeable that many of the younger aspiring locks in the graphic above are of the smaller, faster, lighter, variety, so we can only hope that Bernard Jackman is right. But Leinster, Munster, and Connacht all lost at the week-end largely because they were dominated at scrum time. We currently have only Andrew Porter with the strength to compete with the really heavy and strong props at loose head. Hopefully Furlong has overcome his injuries to assist Bealham on the tight side. I remain unconvinced by Tom O’Toole as a loose head, but Jack Boyle looks promising.

The other weakness in the current Irish and provincial squads is the lack of truly outstanding pace. When other teams make a line-break against us, we frequently don’t have the pace to catch them. How often have we seen an Irish player make a line break only to be caught before the try line? We need some speedsters to make the breakthrough to world class, but in truth, they are few and far between in the Irish game. Only Robert Baloucoune and the Connacht Scrum half, Mathew Devine, come to mind, although I will be keeping a close eye on Ex-Ireland u.20 winger Finn Treacy, who recently made his debut for Connacht and looked really good and fast.

So, who are the uncapped players we can expect to stake their claim on the tour to Georgia and Portugal? My uncapped XXIII would look something like this: (15-9) Andrew Osborne, Shayne Bolton, Hugh Gavin, Cathal Forde, Diarmuid Kilgallen, Charlie Tector, Ben Murphy. (1-8) Paddy McCarthy, Diarmuid Barron, Scott Wilson; Edwin Edogbo, Diarmuid Mangan; Thomas Ahern, Alex Kendellen, James McNabney. (16-23) John McKee, Michael Milne, Jack Aungier, Harry Sheridan, Brian Gleeson, Mathew Devine, Jack Murphy, Jude Postlethwaite.

Obviously quite a few capped players, not selected by the Lions, will make the touring squad as well to add some experience. But the focus will be on the players with the potential to be top test class players  in time for the 2027 World Cup. Which of these can progress to world class in time for the 2027 world cup?