‘Will Welsh Labour’s new candidates embrace radical change or status quo?’ – LabourList

As the Old Guard steps aside, a new generation of Labour candidates prepares for a defining Senedd election – one that will reshape Welsh politics for a generation.

The 2026 Senedd elections mark one of the most significant political shifts in Wales since devolution 13 out of 30 Welsh Labour Senedd members so far now stepping down. With the departure of key Labour figures – including former First Ministers Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gething – and an expansion from 60 to 96 seats, Welsh Labour is set for a generational transition unlike any before.

Mick Antoniw, the long-serving and widely respected MS, summed up the moment in his resignation statement, calling for “fresh blood, new energy, and new progressive ideas” to shape the next era of Welsh politics. But those stepping up to fill the void face an unenviable in-tray. Fourteen years of austerity have left public services including the NHS, dentistry, and schools struggling, while Labour’s relationship with Westminster over further devolved powers remains uncertain.

READ MORE: Welsh Labour has a record of successes, but challenges remain ahead of 2026

One of the reasons I began writing about Welsh politics – particularly from within Labour – was the influence the party has on Wales’ governance. As new candidates emerge over the coming months, they will shape not just the party, but the country in the years to come. These are the people who will not only drive Wales’ recovery from the pandemic but also confront the economic and political crises of the coming decade.

Will the next generation of MSs come from Labour’s traditional pathways – local government, trade unions, and party staffers – or will this expansion bring in a more diverse and unconventional set of candidates? Will they seek greater autonomy for Wales, pushing for control over policing and the Crown Estate, or align more closely with Labour’s more notionally devo-sceptic Westminster leadership?

Above all, will this new cohort remain united, or will the same political shifts reshaping the UK – working-class areas moving toward Reform, cities becoming more progressive – fracture Welsh Labour’s traditional base? Will this new generation push the party’s focus toward their key concerns like cost of living, housing, and the environment?

With so many new Labour MSs likely to take office, the question isn’t just who they are, but what they stand for. To find out, I spoke to candidates themselves both on and off the record as well as former political figures about the direction of the party and the country in the years ahead.

Over the Top: The Battle for Selection

As the contest for these newly expanded seats begins, candidates are already making their case to party members. While some remain private about their ambitions, and in all likelihood will until the last possible moment, others have wasted no time in setting out their stall.

One of the first to declare in Wales, Owain Williams, an early figure in this cycle running for one of the coveted Cardiff seats, made his pitch clear: “We have to get Wales and Labour set up for the 2030s and 40s – we cannot just muddle along.”

What stood out in my conversations with potential candidates was their urgent desire for change – not just in ideological terms, but in the day-to-day realities of governance. Many of them, like the voters they seek to represent, have lived experience of the pressures facing working people.

READ MORE: Welsh Labour prepares to fight or fall in the culture war as Reform threat looms

“I understand the pressures that working parents, renters, and underrepresented communities are under, and I want to ensure that those perspectives are represented in the Senedd,” says Jen Burke, a senior Cardiff Councillor and Cabinet Member who is one of the declared candidates.

“I hope I represent a generation of candidates who are ambitious for Wales but also realistic about the challenges we face—whether on public services, cost of living, or devolution.”

Lived experiences define political careers. First Minister, Eluned Morgan, often speaks of her foundations as a vicar’s daughter in a deprived part of Cardiff. The new generation of candidates, have struggled through many of the age-defining issues of the post-financial crisis and post-pandemic world. This desire to address the big issues of the day is a theme throughout my conversations with potential candidates. Jobs, housing and energy, childcare and rising costs, chief among them.

Looking at last year’s new intake in Westminster, there is reason to believe that a new Senedd cohort could push intergenerational issues further up the agenda.

In Parliament, newly elected Labour MPs continued the age-old habit within the Labour Party of forming factions to influence policy and wasted little time in doing so. Groups like Labour YIMBY (the pro-housing Yes In My Back Yard group) and the Labour Growth Group are pushing Keir Starmer for planning reform to deliver housing, green energy projects, and critical national infrastructure. Their ability to communicate through social media more directly also provides a channel outside the typical broadcast round has drawn in fanatical online followings both from within and outside the party on these issues.

If my conversations are any indication, this generation seemed far more concerned with civil service and planning reform, rather than constitutional change.

Millennial Ministers?

According to election modelling I have seen, the present polling for Labour would point to, in all likelihood, a renewal of some sort of co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru or a formal coalition.

This raises a tricky question of who gets to govern. If Labour forms the next administration, there will be roughly 17 returning MSs yet 14 ministerial positions to fill. With co-operation deals rather than formal coalitions being the norm, there’s a strong chance that Labour will control all these roles if they are the largest party, meaning some first-time MSs could be fast-tracked into Cabinet.

If so, some first-time MSs will be thrust into ministerial roles. Will they bring fresh ideas and energy to government? Or will they not only have to wrestle with the weight of responsibility, while navigating a civil service system, and bottlenecked legislative process that prefers caution over radical change?

System of a Down

Fresh energy and ambition will define this new intake but will soon collide with the entrenched realities of Welsh governance. Former Climate Change Minister Lee Waters warned in his podcast “The Fifth Floor” that the current legislative process and Welsh government itself is already stretched, raising questions about how much real change can be delivered.

Will the euphoria of victory fade into frustration once the reality of governing sets in? As co-operation deals, Senedd scrutiny committees, and the grind of legislative processes slow the desired pace of change, how will the new intake respond?

Candidate Owain Williams acknowledged this challenge: “This stuff has to be done quickly to make a difference […] A lot of things are in our control already, and we need to pull every lever we have to make them happen. […] You can’t just pass a law saying ‘deliver economic growth’—you have to be more creative with what you’ve got.”

Indeed, could this frustration lead to the formation of a more assertive internal grouping within Welsh Labour, as in Westminster?

Could a similar movement emerge in Wales, instead with newly elected MSs challenging the slow-moving bureaucracy and the boundaries of devolution?

The Battle for the Future of Welsh Labour

As the Senedd expands and new faces enter the fold, the future of direction of Welsh Labour remains uncertain. Experiencing not just a generational shift but an ideological one, that determines whether Labour embraces radical reform or maintains a certain level of status quo. One that still has to deal with political disruptors like Nigel Farage and Reform, and the increasingly uncooperative Plaid Cymru under Rhun ap Iorwerth while retaining their own base of support during a period of political polarisation.

This influx of new voices has the potential to reshape the party’s priorities in government, from devolution and economic growth to housing and climate policy. It remains to be seen just how radical that grouping could be and how much disruption there could be in a party grouping typically renowned for ‘iron rod discipline’.

This new generation has the opportunity to reshape Welsh Labour and by extension, Wales, but only if they can overcome the entrenched barriers. The real question is: will they push through, or will the system push back?

For more from LabourList, subscribe to our daily newsletter roundup of all things Labour – and follow us on  Bluesky, WhatsApp, Threads, X or Facebook .

• SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected].
• SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning.
• DONATE: If you value our work, please chip in a few pounds a week and become one of our supporters, helping sustain and expand our coverage.
• PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected].
• ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected].