Why are tensions high in the Arctic? | Explained

The story so far:

International observers have raised concerns about escalating tensions in the Arctic, warning that if left unchecked, they could eventually spark conflict in the region.

What is happening?

The Arctic, the northernmost area of the planet, has remained largely isolated for centuries. However, as climate change accelerates the melting of ice caps, new strategic opportunities are emerging for global powers. Beneath the frozen landscape lie untapped reserves of natural resources such as fossil fuels, rare earth elements, phosphates, and copper as well as lucrative fishing grounds.

Most of these resources are currently inaccessible due to the year-round ice barrier, but as climate change destroys the Arctic environment, these resources and nearby trade routes will become increasingly viable. Unlike the Antarctic, which is demilitarised and environmentally protected by a dedicated international treaty, the Arctic lacks similar legal safeguards and is primarily governed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This allows nations to claim territories in the region and deploy military infrastructure. In recent years, overlapping maritime claims and military posturing have exacerbated tensions.

Who is in control?

The various islands and coastal areas in the Arctic are controlled by eight countries — Canada, Denmark (through Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the U.S. Together, these nations form the Arctic Council, an international body tasked with protecting the environment, conducting scientific research, and safeguarding the interests of indigenous peoples in the region. These nations exercise sovereignty over the Arctic land and can also exploit resources within their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). The waters between these territories fall under international jurisdiction, ensuring freedom of navigation.

According to UNCLOS, nations can extend their claims to the seabed beyond the 200-nautical-mile EEZ if they can prove that the area is a natural prolongation of their continental shelf. Canada, Denmark, and Russia have all submitted overlapping claims to the Arctic seabed to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. Despite these territorial declarations, infrastructure in the Arctic remains underdeveloped, with only a few operational ports along the coast. Among the Arctic Council members, Russia is the only country with a significant fleet of icebreakers, including one which is nuclear-powered, capable of navigating through the region’s treacherous sea ice.

Where do the tensions arise?

For months, news headlines have reported on U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland from Denmark. He has described the world’s largest island as a matter of “ national security” and has questioned the legitimacy of Denmark’s sovereignty over the territory. Greenland, which has been under Danish control for over 300 years, also hosts the U.S. Pituffik military base. In January, following Mr. Trump’s renewed interest, Denmark’s prime minster Mette Frederiksen has pledged to bolster Greenland’s security and embarked on a tour of European capitals to seek support from allies.

Additionally, tensions between the U.S. and Canada have risen following Mr. Trump’s controversial comments about annexing Canada. Both nations have long disputed the status of the Northwest Passage, a potential Arctic shipping route that winds through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago. Ottawa considers the passage part of its internal waters, granting it control over navigation, while Washington insists it falls under international jurisdiction, which means that any nation has freedom of navigation in the Passage.

Concerns over potential conflict also extend to Russia and the remaining Arctic Council members. These members, apart from Russia, all belong to NATO. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, relations within the Council have become increasingly strained. Russian officials, including Defence Committee of State Duma member Andrei Gurulyov, have suggested that Norway’s Arctic island of Svalbard should fall under Russian control. Meanwhile, observer states of the Arctic Council, including India, are closely monitoring developments.

The U.K., for instance, has repeatedly emphasised the strategic importance of the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. (GIUK) gap, a critical choke point for NATO’s naval defences. This passage is the only feasible route for Russian submarines attempting to access the Atlantic to potentially disrupt NATO shipping in case of conflict, making it a focal point of Western military planning.

Why does the Arctic matter so much?

Aside from ongoing resource extraction, interest in the Arctic surged following a 2009 U.S. Geological Survey report estimating that the region holds 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of its untapped natural gas reserves. Most of these resources lie beneath the seabed, making maritime claims highly significant. Greenland also harbours some of the world’s richest deposits of rare earth elements, which drew significant investment interest from Chinese companies in the early 2020s. However, many of these projects were later suspended due to environmental concerns or U.S. political pressure.

The melting of Arctic sea ice has also prompted interest into the opening of new commercial trade routes. The Northeast Passage, which runs along Russia’s Arctic coast, is particularly critical for Chinese trade. This route, stretching from the Bering Strait to Norway, could reduce the maritime distance between East Asia and Europe by approximately 8,000 kilometres compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal. Navigating commercial shipping through this passage could save Beijing billions in transportation costs. However, the so-called Polar Silk Road would require Russia to grant Chinese ships access to its Arctic ports, a prospect Moscow has so far approached with caution.

What lies ahead?

Aside from political declarations and territorial claims, some nations have taken concrete steps to assert their Arctic ambitions. In 2007, Russia sent the MIR-1 submarine to the North Pole to plant a Russian flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic ice cap — a symbolic demonstration of its presence and capabilities. Moscow has also maintained a number of military bases in the Arctic, most of them dating back to the Soviet era. In 2022, it conducted joint naval exercises with Beijing in the East China Sea, which indicated strategic implications for Arctic security.

China has also steadily become more vocal about its Arctic interests, declaring itself a ‘Near-Arctic State’ in 2018 and planning the construction of its first nuclear-powered icebreaker. Since Sweden and Finland joined NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the alliance has intensified its military presence in the region, including large-scale exercises near the Russian border in Finland in 2024. Analysts have pointed out NATO’s limited operational capabilities in the Arctic, raising concerns about strategic imbalances. As temperatures continue to rise, tensions in the melting Arctic may soon reach a boiling point.

Franciszek Snarski is an intern at The Hindu.