In May 2026 Wales heads to the polls to elect a new Senedd. It will be the most dramatic, radical and democratic election in the history of Wales and the United Kingdom.
Since the creation of the National Assembly for Wales in 1999 the Senedd has transformed to a fully-fledged Parliament with primary legislative and some tax raising powers. With full devolved responsibility for agriculture, environment, local government, health and education, its devolved responsibilities have extended in whole or in part over its own electoral processes, devolved tribunals, airport, rail, bus, and some energy.
Legal divergence has increased as a consequence of over 80 pieces of primary legislation, 2,000 pieces of secondary legislation and as a result of England only legislation from Westminster, creating a de facto Welsh legal jurisdiction.
The election will be on the most extensive electoral mandate of anywhere in the United Kingdom. The introduction of voting from 16 years extends the youth franchise and automatic registration of voters will potentially add nearly half a million voters to the Welsh electoral register.
In addition, Wales has ditched first past the post voting which previously elected two thirds of the 60 Senedd members for a fully proportional d’hondt list system. The membership of the Senedd is being increased from 60 to 96 members, a long overdue reform recommended by countless commissions over the past two decades. The expectation is that these reforms will result in the election of the most diverse and democratic Senedd in its 25 year history.
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Constitutional competence restrictions have prevented the introduction of statutory gender equality but there will be guidance issued to political parties and candidates. In addition, the Welsh Government, following on from recommendations from its Standards Committee, will look at legislation to create a robust system of standards which will focus on deception and false statements and other misconducts leading potentially to the removal of Senedd members who personally fail to maintain high standards of honesty, integrity and conduct.
The Senedd is taking to lead to become the most democratic and accountable of all the Parliaments in the UK. These changes come with considerable political challenge, and it is to the credit of the Senedd and Welsh Government that they have not shirked responsibility for recognising some of the challenges our civic and democratic institutions face and to take steps to increase public trust and confidence.
‘May 2026 will be the most challenging election in the Senedd’s history’
Since inception no party has ever had an overall majority in the Senedd. Welsh Labour has always succeeded in becoming the largest party but has always depended on support, co-operation or coalition with another political party, usually the Welsh Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru. The style of politics in Wales has therefore, by necessity and sometimes desire, developed a culture of political collaboration and partnership to govern. It has successfully sustained Labour in government in Wales throughout the lifetime of the Senedd and in particular, the past 14 years of Tory Government in Westminster.
May 2026 will be the most challenging election in the Senedd’s history. Senedd and electoral reform, Brexit, and a traumatic 14 years of Tory austerity will all contribute to the growing political volatility being experienced across the UK and indeed across Europe and internationally.
Brexit has been an economic disaster for Wales. The loss of EU social and structural funding, valued at around £1 billion, was never replaced as promised, and has been compounded by the year on year cuts in public services as a result of Tory austerity.
The corner has been turned. For the first time in 14 years with a new Labour Government in Westminster, we have a Welsh financial settlement which will increase our budget by £1.6 billion including increasing our capital budget from an additional £1million only under the last Tory budget to over 3 billion pounds. The Tories and Plaid Cymru voted against this budget. A single Liberal Democrat vote saw it go through.
It is a modest increase, but a very welcome one which will enable Welsh Government to settle agreed pay claims and begin the process of restoring public services and increasing investment in our vital economic infrastructure
‘Devolution has been vital but has inevitably faced many challenges’
Devolution has been vital to Wales, but has inevitably faced many challenges. An ageing population, demographic changes in the valleys of South Wales, historic ill health compounded by a decade and a half of real terms cuts in funding settlements. Ludicrous attempts to pose Wales in competition with the equally struggling NHS in England are a pointless distraction. You cannot rationally compare a country as Wales with a population of 3 million with England a country of over 55 million with a massively disproportionate level of wealth distribution. Yet the challenges facing the English NHS are largely similar to those facing Wales and have their roots in years of austerity.
Certainly, the Welsh health service has struggled with waiting lists and GP appointment issues. Investment of the proportion of the Welsh budget over the past 14 years has increased from around 44% to 53% yet the challenges in Wales and across the UK increase, primarily due to a lack of funding. The last Labour Government achieved the objective of spending equivalent to average European per capita health spending. It was massively successful. Waiting lists disappeared and investment in health technology increased. Sadly, that successful policy changed in 2010 as per capita funding slipped back year on year. Health and the NHS will be one of the battle lines of the election. Reform would privatise and break up the NHS, and the Tories are moving in this direction so the political stakes in this election are high.
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Local government across the UK has also struggled to maintain public services which also impact on health and social care. Yet in Wales despite an eight percent cut in real terms funding has been able to maintain core services unlike in parts of England which has suffered around 20% of real term cuts.
Austerity has been the enemy for 14 years, it is up to Labour in UK Government in partnership with Labour in Wales to pave a pathway of hope and revival through a fairer financial settlement, fairer distribution of wealth and inevitably a fairer taxation system. It has started but will nevertheless be another of the battlelines.
‘Welsh Labour has a remarkable and positive case to make’
Welsh Labour and devolution have a remarkable and positive case to make. Parts of the rail infrastructure are now devolved. The appalling financial framework of privatisation which saw money pouring out of the transport system and away from investment is now being reversed. Decades of under investment in Welsh rail infrastructure whereby our 11% of the UK rail network received less than 2% of the investment is a scandal, which is at last being recognised politically in Westminster.
Over £1.5 billion of investment in new stations and a new fleet of trains by the Welsh Government is beginning to transform parts of the railway infrastructure. From having some of the oldest trains and carriages in Europe we now have some of the most modern with more a coming on line week by week. None of this would have happened without devolution. The South Wales Metro is beginning to show what can be achieved. Metro investment and proposals for North Wales and West Wales together with the re-regulation of Bus transport via a Bus Bill will sow the seeds for a full integrated publicly owned transport system.
This will be another battle line.
As we commemorate the 40th anniversary of the miners’ strike many of the legacies of de industrialisation remain. The South Wales valleys suffered terribly under the Thatcher government. Redevelopment of the valleys and increasing economic growth has been difficult. However, the £2 billion pounds 44 kilometre Heads of the Valleys road infrastructure is just about complete. A remarkable feat of engineering, it is a decade long commitment by Welsh Labour to open up and transform the economic infrastructure of the heads of the valleys and bring economic growth and prosperity.
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Environmentally, Wales has achieved the second highest recycling rates in the world, introduced a clean air act and abolished many items of single use plastic, and the list is growing.
A pinnacle of success, which has received very little attention has been the Welsh Government’s 21st century schools programme. For over a decade Wales has been upgrading, rebuilding and redeveloping its entire school buildings estate. By using low interest rates to fund local authority borrowing the results have been remarkable. The programme is not complete but over the past decade 292 projects have been completed across Wales investing just under £3 billion pounds. To put this in perspective, Boris Johnson as Prime Minister promised one billion for all of England to rebuild the deteriorating schools estate. Wales has tripled that. If the same policy had applied in England it would have meant a rebuilding investment programme of around £56 billion! And the programme continues for at least another decade building the most modern, environmentally friendly and well equipped schools estate of anywhere in Europe.
So a Welsh Labour record of impressive successes, but many challenges remain.
‘Politics is volatile’
The Welsh Conservatives lost all their parliamentary seats so their focus will be on the Senedd elections to rebuild their political base which has sunk to record low levels.
Reform, in the ascendence till recently, appear rudderless and policy vacant. The only positions they hold which they are now desperately trying to water down are Farage’s previous commitments to privatise the NHS with an American style insurance system, his proximity to Trump and stated admiration for Putin. And so, they fall back to immigration policy, which is not devolved .
Plaid Cymru are in the doldrums, having voted against a budget that gave Wales and extra £1.6 billion and are desperate to become a focus for an anti-Labour in Westminster vote. It is too early to assess how the Welsh Liberal Democrats or the Greens will fare.
Politics is volatile. Social media is increasingly toxic and what happens or doesn’t happen in Westminster will be as much a determinant of political outcomes as what happens in the Senedd.
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