Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for December 2, 2024

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

U.S. Dollar Index

Okay, hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of December 2, 2024. Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do with that very important US Dollar Index. We see the dollar slipping off of its high, currently up 1.82% on the month. Once again, here guys, very important that we take an accurate measurement of performance, not a rolling model where we co-mingle months together. We want to look at what the performance of the dollar is from the beginning of November to the end of November, so we know exactly where we’re at.

Now, the Vantage Point indicators, the Ma diff cross, this was all the way back on the 14th, where basically the software was picking up on weakness in the dollar. We’re still firmly above the monthly opening price at 103.88, but we have three different crossovers that are occurring right now: the short-term crossover, the medium-term crossover, and the long-term crossover. We also have momentum building to the downside.

Now, from a seasonality standpoint, historically, the dollar does very poorly in the month of December and the first part of January, then in February and March, it picks up again. So right now, I believe that the VP indicators are accurate, but here’s where we’re at. The T cross long is 105.99; we’re closing 105.78. We need to hold below $105.99 for the dollar to continue to give up ground. That would be against the Euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar—all of these different currencies that it trades against. So, again, as long as we’re holding below 106, the dollar should remain weak.

Gold

Now, when we look at a comparative analysis on that to Gold, Gold remains down 3.76% in the month of November. Again, we don’t want to move this to a random 5 days, a random 30 days; we want to keep it anchored to the beginning of the month, so we can, at a later date, gauge the performance of any particular asset class in that particular month. But if we mix November with, say, October, then all of that gets muddied. The waters become very muddy. So again, right now, Gold remains down at 3.76%; in my respectful opinion, that is likely a buying opportunity. We want to get above our T cross long 2651, so we can re-target these upper parts of the range, which is coming in at 2789.

Now we’ve got a mixed bag on the indicators here. The predicted RSI—we’re lacking a bit of momentum. We’re very mixed on the ma diff cross. The neural index is showing up, so it does look good for Gold to start its move higher, which it usually does in the month of December.

S&P 500 Index

Now when we look at the S&P 500, once again, it’s very important that we’re posting accurate performance numbers. If we look at the S&P 500 and we look at the SPYs, for example, on the week we’re up a mere 0.58%, but on the month, we’re up 5.34%. It’s very important that we understand accurate performance. Again, we’re not up 3.5%, or 2%, or 1% in the month of November; we are currently up 5.34%, a very good month for the S&P 500 and the SPYs.

Now, what I had stated specifically in last week’s weekly outlook was that if we can get above 6017, then we are likely getting ready to move higher. So we’re closing the week very strong on a Friday; it is a holiday short week, but we closed at 6032, so we’re looking to build on this momentum. We have an Maad diff cross here; we actually have three: the short, medium, and the long-term crossovers have all completed. We have momentum building in the predicted RSI. This does suggest that stocks will advance next week. And again, if we look at the SPYs, it’s the exact same trade here, guys. It’s just an ETF, and again, the performance on the S&P 500 and the SPYs is exactly the same. So if you want to do the futures side, that’s fine; if you want to do the ETF side, then you can also do that. I personally prefer the futures, the mini futures, the micro futures; I think they are better value, better trading hours, but to each their own. Either one is fine—if the S&P goes up, the SPYs are likely to follow.

DAX

Now, if we look at the European Equity markets, so far they’re starting to catch up here. Now if we look at it again from the beginning of the month to where we closed on Friday, then you can see the direct market correlation between the S&P 500 and the European Equity markets. They’ve now recovered; they’re up 2.89%. This was discussed last week: the S&P 500 and the DAX virtually the same trade, even though they’re miles apart, you know. But again, right now, we’ve got our T cross long, that’s coming in at or about the 19,292. As long as we’re holding above that, everything looks good for it to extend higher, and that is supported by the VP indicators.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

Now, of course, with all of this happening, or all of this discussion with equities, we need to look at the VIX, here guys, and the VIX is now starting to push down below the current yearly opening price. So once again, if I pulled up a random 365 days, then I wouldn’t even see this particular level. The current yearly opening price from January 1, 2024, that number is $15.01. So as you can see, if we break down below here, that would be the direct inverse correlation to the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, the SPYs—all of these things. So if that breaks down, that is, we’re using the VIX to confirm a potential breakout in the equity market. So again, everything here right now looks like the VIX is going to extend lower, which would tell me that the SPYs, all of the other main indices, are getting ready to advance.

Bitcoin

Now, when we look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin remains the top performer here, up 39.47% on the month. We have been way out in front of this particular move since September when I first warned you that October and November are strong months for Bitcoin. So the question is here now, can we break above the $100,000 mark? That is a significant psychological barrier. In my respectful opinion only, I think the probability is very high. We’ve had a retracement back down this past week to exactly the T cross long at 90,175, and you can see we have literally, like a springboard, come off that predicted moving average. The very next day, we tested it again; actually, we opened on it, and it’s been going up ever since. So if we can hold above that T cross long, that level now, again, is 91.910. If I click on my F8 in the VP software, again, that long predicted 95,067—those are your two main supports going into next week’s trading, because again, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already taken place. Right, we can’t go backward in our trades; we’re looking—this outlook looks forward, not backwards. So again, watch these key levels.

Light Sweet Crude Oil

Now, when we look at Light Sweet Crude Oil, once again, Light Sweet Crude Oil really is struggling once again here. If we hit this again, we take a measurement from the beginning of the month, it’s been another poor month for oil. So again, at this particular time of year, I tend to gravitate more towards Nat gas, but here, where we currently sit, uh, on the month, we’re down 3.27%. So, very little positive correlation between the equity markets and oil. If anything, I would argue it’s an inverse correlation between the two. So right now, uh, most of the indicators are pointing that we’re going to have further downside on oil, with our predicted differences moving lower, the short, the medium, and the long-term crossover. We also have momentum building on the predicted RSI, 36.9, where most people are looking to buy it, thinking it’s oversold. In actual fact, this could be just getting started with a bigger move to the downside, providing we hold below the yearly opening price at 71.78.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at the Euro-US, going to some of the Forex pairs going into next week, mainly the Euro-US, well, it’s at a crossroads here, guys. We can see up here that the quarterly opening, 111.35, the yearly opening, 110.38, and the current monthly opening price at 108.84, these are all very specific areas of resistance or retracement points that have absolutely nothing to do with conventional tools. So right now, the main barrier for the euro to get to that is 105.97. If the dollar slides further, the US Dollar Index, then the Euro will rise based on that inverse correlation. The indicators in VP, the medium-term crossover, the long-term crossover, the predicted RSI, 61.4—now with a 60/40 split on the predicted RSI, we’re not using it for overbought or oversold; we’re using it to gauge momentum in the market. That’s originally what the RSI was designed to do. So that’s telling me that momentum to the upside is building; we just have to clear 105.97.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, if that is the case, and the dollar is getting ready to move lower in December, then US-Swiss Franc would also follow. As the Euro goes higher, US-Swiss Franc will go lower. If we can break down below the T cross long at 8813, I’m hoping that that will be our resistance for the week. We get a big push down on Monday and Tuesday, and then we put our line in the sand at 8813, and that’s our area we can sell from. But if the dollar does rebound, then we would use 8813 as a level to buy from. So again, the indicators and VP are all pointing down on this, suggesting the dollar is going to weaken.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the British Pound, making a big rebound on Friday, but we’ve got to get above this T cross long. Now, this pair, guys, is of particular interest to us because, again, the predicted moving average is now running completely sideways or horizontal. The calendar yearly opening price, 127.20, is also sitting right there. I would respectfully submit that if we can push through this, we will very quickly extend higher by midweek. So that’s what we would be looking for: again, a break of the T cross long and the yearly opening price. But I always like to give something to the bulls and the bears. If you completely disagree with what I’ve just said, I certainly, above all else, respect that. Then, you would be looking to sell at the exact same level, but based around the inner-market correlations with the equity markets recovering, some of the risk-on coming into the market, Bitcoin advancing—this should help the currencies against the US dollar. But if you believe that this pair is still the primary trend is down, well, then you would sell right into this area of this T cross long and the yearly opening price at 127.32, or another alternative here is you can straddle this area: put a long on one side and a short on the other, and wait for one of them to be triggered, because I can guarantee one of them is going to be triggered. And I’m going to give a 60/40 to the upside, 60% it goes higher, 40% it goes lower.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, with the Dollar-Yen, once again here, guys, I’ve warned everybody on here many, many times with this pair that I believe the Bank of Japan is going to do anything they can to strengthen their currency to get it out of this 150 range. So we’ve broken down below our T cross long, we’ve broken down below the current monthly opening price. I would respectfully submit, based on the VP indicators, we are likely moving towards the 143 area. Now, if the Bank of Japan tries to intervene again, we could get down there very, very quickly. So again, be careful with anything that has Japan in it—Euro-Japan, Great Britain-Japan, Aussie-Japan—it’s all based around the Dollar-Yen trade. So be very, very cautious with this, but our T cross long, 153.01, as long as we’re holding below that, guys, there’s a clear short in play here.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the US-Canada pair has tried to rebound here; a better week, we have had a big spike up into the 141 area and then right back down again. Now, this was based solely on Trump’s comment of the tariffs against Mexico and Canada, uh, that scared our little Prime Minister so bad, he had to fly down there Friday night to meet with Trump, uh, because he’s afraid. Yeah, so again, things are calming down a little bit here now, but I believe that these tariffs are real, and if that’s the case, it will continue to hurt the Canadian dollar. But if there are some concessions on both sides and there are no tariffs, then that should strengthen the Canadian dollar in 2025, providing the Fed remains on his rate cut path. So again, we’ll watch this T cross long very, very closely: 139.81. The indicators are running sideways on this pair; the fundamental of those tariffs is making a lot of people very nervous. So until this resolves itself, the Canadian dollar is likely to remain a little bit weaker because just because they’ve met over the weekend doesn’t mean that that could all fall apart next week, and if it does, it would heavily favor the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, at least. So again, know your levels, guys. We’re going to get a new monthly opening price; we’re with the T cross long, 139.79. There’s a lot of action right around this particular area.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, with the Aussie and the Kiwi, once again, the Aussie is making a pushup, just like the Euro, just like the British pound, uh, same very similar trade here, that we need to understand. The G7 pairs have one thing in common: they all trade against the US dollar, right? So if the dollar slides, which it usually does in the month of December, uh, then that would push the Aussie higher, but we have to break through 65.29. Now, this is a very useful way to trade because there’s no lag in the system; it’s a line in the sand that has to be crossed; there’s nothing to be confused about. This predicted moving average, that level is 65.29. So I would respectfully submit that the savvy trader, knowing these levels, can put by limit orders just above that area, maybe around 65.50 or so. Once we clear this, we should be able to start breaking higher, back towards the 68 level. The current calendar yearly opening price, that would be our target. Now, the new monthly opening price will be set on Sunday night, and I suspect it’s going to be right around the closing price, 65.13. So on this particular pair, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, if we’re holding above 65.13, the new monthly current monthly opening price, again, if I took a random 30 days, you’d be guessing at this stuff, guys. Rolling performance models have a lot to be desired, to say the least, putting it politically correct. Uh, you want to make sure you know that level. If it’s positive on the month, then the probability is it’s going to remain positive and above that monthly opening price for at least the first 10 or 11 days. So again, watch 65.13 and look for a break of 65.29 to confirm a long trade.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The same thing will apply with the Kiwi here, guys. Without complicating things, that T cross long, we need to break above it. That level is 59.01. We have closed the week at 58.65, so I would respectfully submit the same deal: if we’re holding above 58.65, that would be our support for the first 10 days of the month. If we can’t hold above it, then that would become our resistance, and shorts would be in play. So, like I said, I always like to give something to the bulls and the bears. Everybody has an opinion; everybody has their own analysis. I simply try and identify key hot zones to be aware of in your trading that can help guide you for more than just one day, possibly 10 or 15 days. And that’s what we would look for with that seasonal pattern with the US dollar. So, with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of December 2, 2024.