Will light-heavyweight champion Alex Pereira make it five consecutive title defences or can Magomed Ankalaev end the title reign of “Poatan” this weekend when they meet in the UFC 313 main event?
That question will be answered Saturday in Las Vegas when the anticipated 205-pound championship contest takes place at T-Mobile Arena with a co-main event rematch between exciting lightweight strikers Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev preceding it.
Pereira is 5-0 since moving up from the middleweight division where he was a one-time champion after trading wins with his old kickboxing rival Israel Adesanya. The 37-year-old from Brazil is 9-1 in the UFC since debuting in November of 2021.
Ankalaev is riding a 13-fight unbeaten streak that includes wins over Aleksandar Rakic, Johnny Walker, Anthony Smith and Nikita Krylov. The 32-year-old from Dagestan has been the division’s consensus No. 1 contender for quite some time at this point.
“I can’t even explain what I’m feeling right now,” Ankalaev said via an interpreter Thursday at a press conference. “It’s been a really long time that we’ve been hunting this bout. We’ve been waiting for this opportunity. Over a year, we’ve been asking for it. Now we’re finally here and we have this opportunity, I’m 100 per cent motivated.”
Watch UFC 313 on Sportsnet+
Alex Pereira looks for his fourth title defence when he faces Magomed Ankalaev in his most difficult style matchup to date, plus Justin Gaethje makes his anticipated return against fellow striker Rafael Fiziev. Watch UFC 313 on Saturday, March 8 with prelim coverage beginning 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT, and pay-per-view main card starting at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT.
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Sportsnet’s trio of Cage Locks prognosticators are coming off a successful parlay, anchored by Aaron going four for four and nailing his third dart throw of the year.
Full UFC 313 predictions and projected bout order below.
— Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
— Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
— Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
— Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo
— King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
— Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
— Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya
— Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan
— Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal
— Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
— Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda
— Djorden Santos vs. Ozzy Diaz
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON’S PICKS
Best bet: Mairon Santos -303
Favourite: Pereira vs. Ankalaev doesn’t start Round 5 (-160)
Underdog: Justin Gaethje +135
Dart throw: Alex Morono +550
While I respect the skills of Francis Marshall, I believe Santos will be a top-10 featherweight at some point and should get the win. … I would be very surprised to see the main event between Pereira and Ankalaev reach the final round. … Gaethje beat Fiziev last time out, had a full camp and Fiziev is coming off an injury layoff on short notice. What am I missing here? Great value on Gaethje as an underdog. … Carlos Leal is good, but these odds against a tested veteran in Morono is way too high of a price tag for a small skill gap.
DAN’S PICKS
Best bet: Mauricio Ruffy -476
Favourite: Ignacio Bahamondes -125
Underdog: Brunno Ferreira +125
Dart throw: Rei Tsuruya inside the distance +550
Punters beware! Not a lot of safe bets on this card. Even though the odds are leaning strongly in Ruffy’s direction, his opponent King Green will not be as easy as the moneyline states. But ‘One Shot’ should just about edge this one while making everyone who wagered sweat a little. I really like Bahamondes’ chances of winning his third bout in a row. He is a fighter on the ascension in the UFC with two straight Performance of the Night bonuses and should cruise to victory while providing decent returns on the money line.
Ferreira’s power always makes him a threat to upset the odds. If he doesn’t gas out against Armen Petrosyan, I like The Hulk’s chances of getting his hand raised by KO or by scorecards. Joshua Van’s career in the UFC has been a little stop/start. Yes, he has two wins in a row but both were on scorecards. And prior to that he was unceremoniously knocked out by Charles Johnson in Denver. Tsuruya has the proven ability to finish opponents by strikes or strangle which makes this pick a sensible dart throw at these odds.
MIKE’S PICKS
Best bet: Curtis Blaydes -333
Favourite: Alex Pereira -115
Underdog: Alex Morono +550
Dart throw: Turner vs. Bahamondes ends in split or majority decision +650
Style-wise this is the matchup we’ve all had circled as soon as Pereira won his second UFC belt in just his seventh Octagon appearance, which is still crazy to think about. In theory, we’ll find out within a couple minutes of the beginning of Round 1 whether Ankalaev does in fact hold a fight-altering wrestling advantage. Something tells me it’s equally as possible that Pereira has used his time preparing for his recent striking-based opponents to hone his grappling defences in training enough to be able to keep any fight on the feet regardless of the opponent. So since the odds are basically a tossup at this point I’ll stick with the champ to add another top name to his legacy.
In other action, Carlos Leal is the rightful favourite but those odds are disrespectful to Alex Morono so I’m basically making two dart throw wagers this week. Turner vs. Bahamondes should be awesome and I can absolutely see it being a close, 15-minute contest. Unless his chin is simply gone at this point in his career, which is not entirely impossible considering his past losses, I’m on the side of Curtis Blaydes here to make an example of proven drug cheat Rizvan Kuniev who looked massive and jacked at Friday’s weigh-ins. Blaydes can’t underestimate the UFC newcomer but the American has all the tools and experience needed to show his opponent what top-level heavyweight MMA is like.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Santos + Ruffy + Blaydes all to win
Parlay odds: +109 (to win: $109.27)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 7 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 3-4 (W1)
2025 winnings: -$154.34 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+12.66 units)
Best bet: 6-1 (+$2.49)
Favourite: 3-4 (-$246.81)
Underdog: 5-1-1 (+$610.24)
Dart throw: 3-4 (+$900)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+1.41 units)
Best bet: 6-1 (+$15.20)
Favourite: 3-4 (-$179.60)
Underdog: 5-2 (+$445.24)
Dart throw: 1-6 (-$140)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-4.62 units)
Best bet: 5-2 (-$71.38)
Favourite: 5-2 (+$139.29)
Underdog: 3-3-1 (+$170)
Dart throw: 0-7 (-$700)
Best bet: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
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