The View From India newsletter: The return of violence in Syria

(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)

When Abu Mohammad al Jolani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured Damascus in December after a lightning military campaign, many thought it would be a new beginning for Syria, which had witnessed a brutal civil war under the leadership of President Bashar al-Assad that began in 2011. The U.S. removed a bounty it had declared on Jolani’s head (he is now known as Ahmed al-Sharaa). President Emmanuel Macron of France paid “tribute to the Syrian people, to their courage, to their patience. In this moment of uncertainty, I send them my wishes for peace, freedom, and unity.” Syria, under Jolani, who is now acting President, emerged as the runner-up for ‘the country of the year’ award in 2024 of The Economist magazine. But it took only three months before mass violence returned to Syria. In the past four days, gunmen loyal to Jolani’s HTS-controlled regime killed more than 1,500 people in the country’s coastal Latakia and Tartus provinces, a stronghold of the Alawite minority. Of these, 1,068 were civilians, including women and children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based monitor.

The deposed President Assad, who is now in Russia, belongs to the Alawite minority, who make up more than 10% of Syria’s 23.6 million people. Syria’s new authorities say the security action was launched to tackle an insurgency led by the remnants of the former regime in the coastal regions. But reports from the ground suggested that Alawite homes were attacked, looted, and their members were killed by gunmen who roamed around the streets of Latakia and Tartus — the regions that were relatively safe even in the midst of the civil war. The regime now says the security operation is over and has promised to investigate what Jolani called “violations”. But, the insurgency and mass violence have raised questions about the ability of Syria’s new rulers to unify the country under their leadership and establish peace and stability.

This writer was sceptical about the regime change in Syria, mainly for two structural reasons. One, Syria is not a homogenous society. It is a Muslim majority country, but the Muslim community of Syria is anything but united. A vast majority of them are Sunnis. Alawites, Shias and Druze are the other sects. Syria also has a sizeable population of Christians who follow the eastern rites. After Syria won independence from France in 1946, the country went through a period of instability and witnessed coups and counter-coups. It was Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, who brought political stability into Syria after he captured power in 1970. And he did that by building a system of authoritarianism that’s rooted in patronage and sectarian balance. He adopted a secular Constitution, kept religious fundamentalists out of power, aligned with the Soviet Union during the Cold War and maintained a tight grip on the state and society. Jolani, who toppled the system Hafez had built, wants to build a new one, rooted in majoritarian Islamism. This could invariably lead to social tensions, particularly in a country that is yet to recover from the wounds of the civil war.

Two, Jolani doesn’t come with a clean slate. He was the jihadist picked by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the former self-declared ‘Caliph’ of the Islamic State terror group, to open a branch of his outfit in Syria. The HTS, which is today commanded by Jolani, was the latest avatar of al-Qaeda’s official branch in Syria. The HTS had earlier said the Alawites were not real Muslims. And the HTS is also not a home-grown militant group. Its original version, Jabhat al-Nusra, was conceived, structured and operated as a transnational jihadist group. Even today, transnational jihadists (those who travelled to Syria to wage ‘jihad’ from different parts of the world due to ideological reasons) are part of the HTS’s rank and file. Even though Jolani had promised that he would not target minorities, the HTS’s social and organisational character has not undergone any transformational change. The violence we witnessed in Syria over the past few days meant that these contradictions are back at play. If Jolani fails to rein in his armed men (provided he wants to do so), Syria could soon fall into another spiral of violence.

Ukraine talks in Arabia

American and Ukrainian officials are sitting down for talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday. U.S. officials have already held two rounds of talks with Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, now says he wants peace but with security guarantees. The Americans say they are trying to understand Ukraine’s position and the gaps between Kyiv and Moscow and would try to bridge them in future talks. Ukraine was initially reluctant to join talks without security guarantees. After the disastrous February 8 Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Mr. Zelenskyy, the U.S. halted all military aid to Ukraine, following which Kyiv agreed to work under Mr. Trump’s “strong leadership” to attain peace. Mr. Zelenskyy has also proposed an air and naval truce, which Russia has dismissed. Recent days also witnessed escalating air war between both sides. Russia launched massive air strikes last week, and Ukraine unleashed dozens of drones on Moscow on Tuesday. With tensions remaining high, all attention is now on the Jeddah talks.

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1. New Delhi considers restoring High Commissioner to Canada to reset ties

A new Canadian PM spells reset opportunity for ties hit by Nijjar killing, say former Indian, Canadian diplomats; last week, PM-designate Carney spoke of ‘opportunities to rebuild’ ties with India as Canada diversifies trade ties amid Trump’s tariffs, reports Suhasini Haidar.

2. Abdullah Öcalan: Rebel without arms

The PKK founder’s call to his supporters to lay down weapons and dissolve the organisation opens the possibility of bringing the 40-year conflict between Turkiye’s Kurdish minority militants and the state to an end, writes Stanly Johny.

3. Why has India promised to buy more U.S. oil?

Why is India looking to diversify its crude supply? Who are its largest suppliers, and how much of crude oil does it import? How is the government balancing the needs of its energy transition and its energy security? What role is America going to play? writes N. Ravi Kumar.

4. ‘Sri Lanka’s Tamil parties have no choice but to unite in Parliament’

Dissanayake government’s position on addressing racism is welcome, but it needs to show qualitative change in action, says Jaffna MP, reports Meera Sinivasan.

5. U.S. immigration agents arrest Palestinian student at home, a day after Trump revokes millions in federal funding to Columbia

Mahmoud Khalil, a green-card holder and a graduate student at Columbia, was one of the lead negotiators on behalf of pro-Palestine protesters at 2024’s Gaza solidarity encampment in the university; ICE agents who arrested the Palestinian from his university apartment say they were acting on behalf of the State Department to revoke his green card, reports Anisha Dutta.