Solana (SOL) Price Prediction & Analysis: Can the Critical $118 Defense Line Hold? – CoinCentral

TLDR

• SOL is testing the $118 price level, which has served as a vital support since March 2024
• Binance appears to be buying back SOL at $118 after previously selling at $135
• Multiple Solana protocols have surpassed $1 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL)
• PayPal has officially integrated Solana, potentially introducing millions of users to its ecosystem
• Despite price drops, Solana’s TVL has grown to 65.04 million SOL, nearly quadrupling since November

Solana’s price has been under pressure in recent weeks, testing a critical support level that has acted as a defense against further decline since March 2024. At the time of writing, SOL is trading around the $118 mark, a price zone that has repeatedly prevented steeper drops over the past month.

The cryptocurrency has faced challenges following what some market participants have called “Trump’s Liberation Day” tariffs, which have impacted various asset classes including the crypto market. These economic measures have contributed to SOL’s retest of its 12-month support level.

Recent price action shows SOL dropping as much as 24% from last Tuesday, reaching lows of $112.24 in the past 24 hours. This decline has effectively erased all gains achieved during the first half of March.

Binance Activity Influences Market Movements

Analysis of on-chain activities reveals interesting market dynamics. Binance, along with Coinbase, appears to have strategically managed SOL positions through Wintermute.

The pattern observed shows these exchanges initiated a price boost to $135, then sold long positions until the price hit $120. This action reportedly flushed out short positions at the peak and led to liquidation of longs around and below $120.

More recently, Binance has begun buying back SOL through Wintermute. This activity suggests a potential market floor at $118, which could produce positive sentiment for a recovery towards $135 or higher if bullish conditions return.

However, market observers note that inadequate confidence could lead to further price declines despite Binance’s buying activities.

DeFi Ecosystem Strength Despite Price Pressure

Despite the price volatility, Solana’s network fundamentals show remarkable strength. The blockchain’s DeFi ecosystem is thriving with multiple protocols now exceeding $1 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL).

Leading the charge is Jito with $2.04 billion TVL, demonstrating that liquid staking on Solana is gaining substantial traction. Other protocols, including Kamino Finance and Marinade Finance, are also seeing significant inflows.

Solana’s daily DEX volume has reached $2.417 billion, surpassing that of Ethereum at $1.899 billion, BSC at $1.066 billion, and Base at $973.44 million. This elevated DEX usage signals continued network adoption.

More than $550 million has been bridged from other chains to Solana over the past month, including over $400 million from Ethereum alone. Additionally, over 1.15 million new tokens were launched on Solana recently.

Despite the price being down, the #Solana #DeFi ecosystem continues to look solid with a number of projects seeing more than $1B in TVL.

Check out the breakdown in the @RR2Capital March report. 👇https://t.co/YUerJJWaDi pic.twitter.com/mcY9SE9xJC

— Crypto Rand (@crypto_rand) March 31, 2025

Institutional Interest Growing

In a development that could have long-term implications, PayPal has officially integrated Solana. This move could potentially introduce millions of users to the Solana ecosystem and inject new liquidity into the network.

Simultaneously, U.S. institutions are showing interest in Solana’s staking ecosystem. Marinade Finance has hinted at developing a non-custodial and compliant staking solution designed specifically for institutional investors.

If this institutional-grade staking solution materializes, it could boost Solana’s liquidity, enhance network security, and attract a new wave of capital.

The TVL figures support this growing interest. Solana’s TVL has increased to 65.04 million SOL as of April 2, compared to just 16.61 million SOL in late November. This nearly fourfold increase suggests long-term confidence in the network.

Current TVL levels are approaching Solana’s all-time high of 67.69 million SOL, which was set in mid-June 2022.

Network Activity Metrics

Transaction data provides insight into how market conditions have affected Solana’s network performance. Daily transactions peaked at 76.75 million on January 23, coinciding with SOL’s price peak during the same period.

Since then, daily transactions have dipped below 50 million, in line with the general market downturn. For context, the network registered 47.72 million transactions on April 2.

Daily active addresses have also seen a decline, dropping from 5.69 million on January 24 to 2.77 million by March 16. However, there has been an uptick in active addresses since mid-March, likely due to accumulation after price retested the 12-month support.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. Both the MACD line and its Signal line remain below zero at -6.34 and -5.93, respectively. A potential bearish crossover could increase selling pressure, leading to further losses.

However, the histogram shows some positive momentum, indicating that the rate of decline might be slowing. This could create opportunities for market stability or recovery.

If SOL reclaims the $118 level, it could move toward the descending trendline near the $130 area. Breaking through this resistance zone might generate upward momentum toward $150 or higher.

Conversely, if SOL fails to hold the $118 support, the next major support level sits around $110, with a potential decline toward $80-$85 if selling pressure intensifies.

Solana’s next move hinges on its reaction at this critical price level. Holding below $118 would signal more bearishness, while reclaiming it might hint at a possible reversal.