Senators need talent boost as skid extends heading into 4 Nations break

Ottawa — After Ottawa was shellacked 5-1 by the Florida Panthers on Saturday, two things were evident for the Senators: They need a break and some help.

Luckily, the first will happen for everyone on the team not named Brady Tkachuk, Linus Ullmark or Nikolas Matinpalo with 4 Nations Face-Off starting next week.

However, a third straight loss heading into the break — after having won five in a row right before — highlighted that although a spot at the big dance is within reach, the Senators’ playoff hopes rest (no pun intended) on a fine line. Ottawa is bunched up with a plethora of other teams all vying for two or three playoff spots. It’s close.

And while some time off will help, a little bump in talent could be the bigger difference down the stretch. The Sens were outplayed in just about every aspect of the game while visiting the defending champions at Amerant Bank Arena.

“They were just better than us,” said Thomas Chabot post-game.

It doesn’t help that Ottawa’s second and third-line centres are out for weeks in Josh Norris’ case, while Shane Pinto’s injury severity remains unclear as he missed Saturday’s game. The positive is that this might be the best time to get injured… I guess. Time to heal.  

Going back to reinforcements, it’ll be necessary for general manager Steve Staios to push Ottawa to become more competitive with other elite teams, including the likes of Florida.

After Brady Tkachuk opened the scoring in the first period on Saturday night, it was an onslaught in the second frame as the Panthers scored four times on twenty shots. It was the first time the Senators gave up over 40 shots in a game this season which is an indictment of their play this one game but also a reason to believe in the team. The 48 shots they allowed were the most they’ve given up since the 2022-23 season.

Florida scored twice in transition including Gustav Forsling racing down the ice and splitting Travis Hamonic and Tyler Kleven for a 3-1 lead. It was an identical play to Brandon Hagel’s goal — in a 4-3 win for the Tampa Bay Lighting — against the same pairing.

Speed kills playoff hopes. The Panthers are known for being one of the fastest teams in the league. The Senators are not. Especially within their forward group. Barkov stole the puck from Tkachuk in transition during the third period, something that happened over and over again to the captain and his teammates.

“Each line can skate, there’s not much space out there,” said Drake Batherson following Ottawa’s third consecutive loss. “We are trying to play like that as well.”

When examining a forward group that is 22nd in goals for, the Senators’ lack of pace speaks as a factor to their offensive aptitude (or lack thereof). Of the 11 forwards for Ottawa on Saturday night, according to NHL Edge data, only four were are above the 50 per cent mark in the league for top skating speed: Tim Stutzle, Ridly Greig, Zack Ostapchuk and Batherson. Ottawa is 30th in high-danger scoring chances for at five-on-five, and that even includes games with Norris and Pinto healthy. There have been instances where Stutzle skates up the ice, creating an advantage, but his teammates simply can’t catch up. Hard to create offence without quickness all around to stay with the play.

Staios’ priority should be to add a scoring forward with speed, ideally a winger next to Stutzle who has been searching for consistent linemates all season. No animus toward Matthew Highmore but he cannot be playing on a line with Stutzle this late in the season the way he was against Florida. Ottawa doesn’t have to go all in, but Staios’ team has put themselves in a position to make the playoffs for the first time in a long time, as all fans know.

The Senators are currently in the first wildcard playoff spot heading into the 4 Nations break. A fact that bodes well for Ottawa considering the success rate of teams to go on and make the post-season when already holding a spot heading into an All-Star or Olympic break:

• 2023-24: 14/16 (87.5 per cent)
• 2022-23: 15/16 (93.8)
• 2021-22: 15/16 (93.8)

Win your way in by February and it seems likely you stay put. The Senators are right there and shouldn’t waste the opportunity.

The team will have to consider cap flexibility, however, as a cap team. There is always a first time for everything. Ottawa’s cap limitations were present of late as they had to play 11 forwards and seven defencemen in their final two games before the break with Norris and Pinto out. The Senators are only $105,000 under the cap, according to PuckPedia. They weren’t able to call up other players without a major salary going to long-term injury reserve or waiving a roster player. It meant Ottawa could not call up Stephen Halliday or Angus Crookshank who have played well in the AHL for Belleville. That’s what happens when you are a cap team. Good and not-so-good problems.

This creates another dilemma for Staios. I won’t go into the minutiae of the cap wizardry Staios will be tasked with to make a trade should he choose. It’s complicated, but that’s why the general manager makes way more than me. It likely would have to be money-in and money-out.

The Senators have been linked to Ryan Donato who has a cap hit of $2 million, while having a penchant for scoring, with 16 goals in 51 games on a grim Chicago Blackhawks team. Although a centre, Donato provides the perfect middle six addition with scoring and speed that matches Ottawa’s needs. Also, it likely wouldn’t require a first-round pick to attain Donato.

Other names such as Ryan Strome, Mathieu Olivier, Jake Evans and Gustav Nyquist all would give a boost without breaking the bank. Ottawa can trade a player in its bottom six for cap reasons to facilitate a trade that works money-wise. A simple one-for-one upgrade. The Senators also have their second-round pick available to them this season and four third-round picks in the next two years. Plenty of draft capital to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, another defenceman wouldn’t hurt either for the bottom pairing. Although with the cap shenanigans required to pull off such a move, while adding a forward as well, would be quite difficult.

The Senators have a solidified top four but the third pairing could be better between the threesome of Tyler Kleven, Travis Hamonic and Matinpalo. All three are below 50 per cent in terms of shot share and percentage of expected goals share. Nevertheless, the Senators have shown themselves to be good enough with their current defence corps to make the playoffs. But still, another affordable six or seventh defenceman wouldn’t hurt.

Former Senators coach Guy Boucher would always say “rest is a weapon.” But rest with an injection of talent is the kind of ammunition the Senators need. It’s essential for Ottawa to acquire some more firepower.