Raptors and Wizards approaching rebuild much differently

After decades seemingly as an organization aiming only at mediocrity – this is a franchise that has won five playoff rounds in the 45 years and never twice in one year since they lost in the NBA Finals in 1979 – Washington has pulled the band-aid off. They are at the start of a rebuild that is close to ‘The Process’-era Philadelphia 76ers who won an average of 16 games a season from 2013-14 to 2015-16 while waiting for Joel Embiid to lead them out of the wilderness. 

This is from a Wizards organization that was so opposed to tanking that owner Ted Leonsis insisted on signing Bradley Beal to a five-year, $251 million contract extension in the summer of 2022. The deal was made even though it would give Beal a no-trade clause because he had been with the team for 10 seasons and despite the fact that Washington had been a sub-.500 team for the previous four years with Beal as their best player. 

Eventually, Leonsis saw the light, but when it came time to trade Beal he had no leverage because of the aforementioned no-trade clause. In the end, Beal chose to join the Phoenix Suns for the 2023-24 season and the Wizards had to settle for a sub-par return when trading one of the best players in franchise history. 

(And as an aside, it’s that no-trade clause in Beal’s contract that is the impediment in the Suns’ efforts to include Beal in trade for the Miami Heat’s Jimmy Butler that is holding up the trade market prior to the Feb. 6 deadline this season). 

But Washington remains undeterred. They turned over their management to Michael Winger, who cut his teeth as an NBA executive working for Sam Presti with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Presti, who knows something about rebuilding and being prepared for some short-term pain in the name of long-term gain. 

There has been pain. The Raptors’ 106-82 win over the Wizards was Toronto’s fifth straight and seventh in their last eight games, which could cause some problems for Toronto at the draft lottery on May 12^th, but has been provided a nice sugar buzz and dose of positive affirmation for a team that was bruised, battered and lost at sea for the month of December. 

It’s the first time the Raptors have won five straight since April of 2022, the last time the Raptors made the playoffs and the win also assured the Raptors of their first winning month since November of 2023. It’s the first time they’ve won seven of eight games since February of 2023 when Fred VanVleet was still the starting point guard. 

The Raptors continued their defensive commitment that has seen them climb to the top of NBA rankings since Jan. 13. They held Washington without a field goal for the first five minutes of the game and to just 25 per cent shooting in the opening quarter, after which they led 31-18 on their way to a 57-38 lead at halftime. The 82 points was the least the Raptors have allowed since they held the pandemic shell of the Golden State Warriors to 77 points on April 2, 2021. 

Scottie Barnes led the Raptors with 24 points, four rebounds and four assists to lead seven Raptors in double figures as Toronto had 31 assists on 42 field goals. Meanwhile, they held the Wizards to 38.9 shooting and 5-of-30 from three, while forcing 25 turnovers. 

All that said, the Raptors did play well, but this was also the Wizards just Wizarding — they’re the worst offensive (and defensive) team in the NBA. 

What the Raptors are right now isn’t entirely clear. Before their little run, the Raptors had the second-worst record in the NBA. At 15-32, the Raptors now have the sixth-worse record. They’ve moved from having a 14 per cent chance at the first pick and a 52 per cent chance at picking in the top four with no possibility of picking worse than sixth to having a nine per cent chance of picking first, a 37.2 per cent chance of picking in the top four and a possibility of picking as far back as 10th. 

The Wizards won’t have these concerns. The loss was their 15th straight and dropped their record to 6-40 which translates into a 12-win pace over 82 games, this a season removed from winning 15 last year. 

And things will likely get worse before they get better. Washington is widely expected to be trying to trade their quality veterans – former Raptor Jonas Valanciunas, power forward Kyle Kuzma and reserve guard Malcolm Brogdon head that list — for more draft capital at the deadline. 

It will be interesting to track which approach ends up bearing fruit. The Raptors, who are trying to rebuild on the fly with a foundation of young-ish veterans like Barnes, Immanuel Quickley (who missed his eighth straight game with a hip strain) and RJ Barrett with a nod to the draft lottery to augment their team? Or the Wizards who have gone bare bones, given the team over to their rookies — no team has given more minutes to rookies this season than Washington — and depending on lottery luck to save them?

At the very least no one can argue the Wizards don’t have clear direction. Where it leads? That’s another thing.

1. Should Barnes be an All-Star? Interesting question, we’ll find the answer on Thursday night when the NBA announces the all-star reserves as voted on by league coaches. Objectively, it’s hard for a player on a 15-32 team to be considered one of the 12 best players in the Eastern Conference.

And on a practical level, chances are a lot of the voting was done before the Raptors went on their recent run. But has Barnes played like an all-star? I’d say so. For the season he’s averaging 20.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.5 steals and nearly a block per game. But since dealing with a broken orbital bone in his face and shaking off the effects of a nasty ankle sprain back in mid-December, Barnes has been even better, with his defensive activity taking a noticeable jump – he’s averaging 1.8 steals and 1.4 blocks since Jan. 1. Overall his production compares favourably with the likes of Cade Cunningham, Pascal Siakam and Jaylen Brown who are likely to get all-star consideration ahead of Barnes, but their team’s success will likely be the difference.

2. Speaking of All-Star: Gradey Dick sat out against the Wizards with an illness, but he got some nice news this week when he was one of 10 second-year NBA players chosen to play in the Rising Stars Showcase at all-star weekend. The 10 second-year players and 11 rookies will be divided into three teams of seven and play in a mini-tournament – with seven G-League players comprising the fourth team – for the right to play on All-Star Sunday against the three teams made up of the 24 all-stars. It’s a nice honour for Dick, who wasn’t one on either of the two All-Rookie teams at the end of last season.

At the very least Dick – taken 13th overall in the 2023 draft – has moved up amongst his peers on the strength of a solid first half to the season, where he’s averaging 15.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 29 minutes a game, all of them starts. Among second-year players, Dick is fourth in three-pointers made, fifth in scoring and seventh in minutes per game. He’s far from a finished product, but for the moment, Dick is probably outplaying his draft position which is a far cry from where he was this time a season ago.

3. The Wizards are well-represented at the Rising Stars event with both Alex Sarr — taken second overall – and Bub Carrington, taken 14th, both being given spots among the 11 rookies taking part in the event. None of the Raptors’ five rookies — Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, Jamal Shead, Ulrich Chomche and Jamison Battle — were invited. On the face of it, it’s not all that surprising. Walter, Mogbo, Chomche and Battle have all either missed a lot of time or spent long stretches in the G-League on assignment and only Walter — taken 19th overall — had the benefit of being a first-round pick.

But Shead, taken 45th overall, might have had an interesting case. Consider Wednesday when Shead out-played Carrington. The Raptors rookie guard finished with 10 points, four assists and a steal on 3-of-5 shooting, while Carrington was 1-of-4 for three points, one assist and two turnovers. Carrington is a nice prospect – at six-foot-four, he’s got great size for a point guard and he’s just 19 years old with one college season under his belt — but he’s hardly knocked it out of the park as a rookie. In fact, once you control for minutes played, Shead has probably been the more impactful player. On per 36-minute basis, Shead is averaging 11.6 points and 7.4 assists for Toronto, compared to Carrington’s 10.8 and 4.7. Their shooting efficiencies are comparable, but Shead is trending up, knocking down 41.7 per cent of his threes since mid-November after a shaky start. Shead won’t be at All-Star weekend, but if he keeps it up he might get an All-Rookie nod by year’s end.