Is the U.S. Finally Moving Away from Coal? | Shale Magazine

After depending heavily on coal for power for decades, the United States may finally be leaving coal in the past, as more oil, natural gas and renewable energy capacity comes online. International organizations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) have long criticized the world’s addiction to coal, which is considered the dirtiest fossil fuel. Pressure has been mounting to shift from coal to other, less-polluting fossil fuels or renewable alternatives, but some countries have been more successful in this transition than others. 

While the U.K. and several European countries have grown much less reliant on coal, other countries, including several Asian states as well as the U.S., continue to depend heavily on coal. However, as many governments support a global green transition, the movement away from coal may finally be happening. 

Coal Plant Retirements

Hundreds of U.S. coal plants have been retired in recent decades, as the country expands its gas and renewable energy sectors. More than half of the remaining coal facilities in the U.S. are slated for retirement.

In February, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the U.S. plans to retire 12.3 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in 2025, marking an increase in retirements of 65% compared to 2024. Last year, just 7.5 GW was retired from the U.S. grid. 

Coal-generating capacity will contribute around 66% of retirements, while natural gas will account for 21%. Electric generators plan to retire 8.1 GW of coal-fired capacity in 2025, or around 4.7% of the total operational U.S. coal fleet. This is a significant increase in coal retirements, from just 4 GW in 2024. 

The largest U.S. coal plant scheduled for retirement is the 1,800-megawatt (MW) Intermountain Power Project in Utah. The 1,331 MW J H Campbell plant in Michigan and 1,273 MW Brandon Shores facility in Maryland are also expected to be retired. 

The U.S. has long Depended on Coal 

While several plants are expected to be retired this year, as the U.S. shifts its dependence to oil, gas and renewable energy sources, the transition away from coal has not been easy. 

Coal is generally viewed as the “dirtiest fossil fuel”. Burning coal continues to account for 41% of global carbon dioxide emissions. However, it is not just CO2 that we need to be concerned about, as coal mines are a major source of methane. During its first 20 years in the atmosphere, the warming impact of methane is over 80 times that of CO2. 

Fossil fuels contribute between 31 to 42% of methane emissions attributable to human activity, and coal mines account for nearly a third of this, according to the IEA. Estimates from the group Global Energy Monitor suggest that methane emissions from coal mines could total as much as 56 million metric tons a year. As coal is generally regarded as far more harmful to human health and the environment than other energy sources, such as natural gas and renewable energy sources, many governments have sought to transition away from a reliance on coal in recent years. 

Despite the mounting pressure to reduce dependence on coal, U.S. utilities have extended the life of almost one-third of coal units with scheduled retirement dates, either by delaying or cancelling their closure. While some states have been able to shift towards alternative energy sources, others, such as Wyoming – the largest coal-producing state – continue to depend heavily on coal plants for their revenue. 

Wyoming is now the country’s third-largest net energy supplier, after Texas (oil) and Pennsylvania (gas). It is no wonder, therefore, that Wyoming, North Dakota, Kentucky, and West Virginia have all signed legislation aimed at making it more difficult to close coal plants. 

Even though coal production is not generally considered economically viable, considering the low costs of producing natural gas and other clean energy alternatives, several states depend heavily on coal production for their economies. This has led several to look to incorporate carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology into operations, rather than shift to alternative energy sources. 

In January, at the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland, President Trump said “good, clean coal” could be used to power data centers, as demand grows. This suggests that although the U.S. is undergoing a transition away from coal, the growing demand for power to support the rollout of complex technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), could lead utilities to delay or cancel scheduled coal plant retirements. 

A Shift to Alternative Energy Sources

Nevertheless, experts suggest that there is nowhere to go but down when it comes to coal power generation. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) forecasts that operating coal capacity will continue to decline for the rest of the decade, reaching around 115,000 MW of remaining operational power in 2030. This would mean that 63.8% of the peak total – 203,000 MW of coal-fired capacity – is expected to have been closed by this date. 

The IEEFA expects most if not all the remaining 2030 capacity to be retired by 2040, as the existing plants become outdated and more alternative energy comes online. External pressure to transition away from coal to help meet climate pledges will likely play a role in this transition, as will the cost of keeping coal plants running compared to powering cleaner alternatives.

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