IF

If— BY RUDYARD KIPLING – amended and abridged

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster

    And treat those two impostors just the same;   

If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken

    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,

    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can keep your head when all about you   

    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

    But make allowance for their doubting too;   

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,

    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,

Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,

    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,   

    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,

If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,

    If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,   

Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,   

    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

The opening two lines of the above amended extract of Kipling’s poem If appear above the doors to Wimbledon’s Centre Court. The final thing that the competitors see before they battle for the trophy.

I’ve often been struck by the difference even a one point win or loss can make to media coverage of a sporting event and even determine the decisions made by those in authority. Borthwick was widely perceived as being within a loss or two of being sacked by the RFU, and now, after extremely fortuitous one point victories over France and Scotland, and even before a good win against Italy, he is said to be safe.

If you read the post event match reports in the popular media, an awful lot depends on the final result. Even the supposedly objective player rating columns are dramatically different depending on who won and lost.

And so it is that the Irish performance against France has been widely slated, and offered in evidence that Ireland always choke when it matters most. The usual guff about our World Cup quarter-final ceiling is dragged out, as is Leinster’s failure to win a trophy in recent seasons. Reaching the final of the European Cup and the semi-final of the URC for the last three years in a row, doesn’t count. In fact, it is adduced as further evidence that Leinster players are chokers when it matters most.

It is as if we have some God given right to beat all and sundry and any failure on any occasion to get on the right side of the scoreboard is evidence of some grave moral and structural flaws. According to some, we were unbelievably arrogant and presumptuous to even have the temerity to believe we were in with a chance. The critics “always knew” we were going to get our comeuppance in a major way. Little matter that the only arrogance on display was from those self-same critics.

The only evidence proffered for that arrogance prior to the Wales match was a somewhat tongue in cheek clickbait podcast on ‘Off the Ball” where some pundits speculated that Ireland could beat Wales with 14, 13, or perhaps even 12 men. Little matter that the last time we lost to Wales was in 2021 when Peter O’Mahony was sent off early and we played most of the match with 14 men. No one in the Ireland camp had said anything other than that it would be a difficult and competitive match. As it turned out, Ireland were losing until we were restored to 15 men in this year’s match. Anyone with knowledge of Wales Ireland matches in Cardiff was in the least bit surprised by that.

Rugby is an almost primeval battle for physical dominance complimented by speed and skill in which momentum and confidence plays a crucial role. When things are going your way, everything becomes an awful lot easier. You can play by instinct and not second guess your every decision. Passes stick, kicks bounce the way you want them to, and the referee wants to keep the flow of the game going.

When the battle turns against you, everything suddenly becomes an awful lot harder. The more mistakes you make, the more you focus on not making mistakes, think a little longer about each decision, and become more a little programmed – and predictable – in your play. The opposition gain in confidence, momentum, and freedom to express themselves.

The first problem for Ireland in the France match was that Hansen, Furlong and Kelleher were not passed fit for the match and we lost Lowe a few minutes before it started. All four are vital to the way the team play and needed to be able to play against France. We do not have France’s strength in depth. Strike one for France

The second problem was that Ireland dominated the opening 20 minutes without scoring, and France then scored off their first breakaway attack against the run of play. To make matters worse McCarthy conceded a silly yellow card for a pull back on Ramos off the ball. Ireland had played almost all the rugby and had nothing to show for it. Psychologically, that is devastating for any team. The French defence feel they are in control and their attack feel they can score whenever they have to. Strike two for France.

A Prendergast penalty then hits the post when we needed a score most to get into the game. He makes amends with two good strikes later on, but one is nullified by what seems like a very harsh penalty to France for crossing. France lead 8-6 going into half time. Strike Three for France

That is actually a reasonably good result for Ireland given the circumstances. Things haven’t gone our way but we have survived a yellow card and are still in the game. The standard generally has been very good with outstanding play by both sides and the match has been played at an amazing pace. The impact of the bench is going to be crucial.

Ireland score shortly after half-time and take a 13-8 lead thanks to an outstanding touchline conversion by Prendergast. This was actually a remarkable achievement by Ireland in the circumstances, reversing the flow of momentum. The game is now in the balance, and the next score is going to be crucial. Strike one, for Ireland

The next score goes to France thanks to an extremely controversial try, which in my view was pivotal in changing the course of the game. Strike four, for France

Former international referee, Owen Doyle, writing in the Irish Times, excoriates the performance of the referee, Angus Gardner, in the match. (Interestingly, Garner was also the referee when Ireland lost to Japan in the World Cup, with World Rugby later admitting he had gotten several key decisions wrong). To be clear, Doyle lists a number of instances where Ireland and France players may have gotten away with an infringement. He blames the Dupont injury not on the players but on the rules which permit those sorts of clear-outs which he sees as clearly dangerous.

But he reserves his greatest ire for the bizarre decision to let the Boudehant try stand despite O’Mahony having been cleared out off the ball to make space for the France attack down his channel. The notion that O’Mahony was retreating at the time has no bearing on the law against tackling a player way beyond the breakdown. There is no mention of a “matador defender” in the rules. France were able to score in the space O’Mahony was positioning himself in to defend. France retake the lead, and all the momentum is once again with them. Strike five, for France

All referees make mistakes and an awful lot of them do not alter the course of a match, but some can do. Like everybody else, I have no idea whether Ireland would have won the match had that try been disallowed, but the point is Ireland were in the lead, and arguably on top in the game at that point. France could have become disheartened and Ireland emboldened, the longer Ireland retained the lead from then on. Ireland had to expend an awful lot of energy to get to that point, and now they found themselves behind again.

Most likely, the deserved yellow card for Nash incurred in the build up to that try would have turned the match in any case. But after both those incidents, there was always only going to be one winner, and the only question was by how much. Fair dues to France. They played outstandingly well and drove home their advantage with another great try by Bielle-Biarrey almost immediately afterwards. Ramos nailed every kick while the match was still remotely competitive. No one can say France weren’t convincing winners well before the two late consolation tries by Ireland which merely put a respectable gloss on the score-line.

I wrote before the match that I suspected France had the higher ceiling and if they played at their best they would probably win, and so it transpired. France had to be below par or most things had to go our way for us to win, and that didn’t happen. If you have to blame someone, I would put most of the blame on two yellow cards conceded by two of our more inexperienced players, one of whom didn’t even expect to be playing on the day.

The only point of this review is to underline just how fine the margins between victory and defeat can be, especially at the top level. Sometimes when things start to go wrong, mistakes snowball, and a narrow potentially win or defeat can become a rout. Rugby can be a cruel game.

But that does not mean that the Irish game is in crisis. We are still one of the best three teams in the world, according to the World Rugby rankings, which are based on results, not wishful thinking. Healy, Murray and O’Mahony can head off into retirement with their heads held high, having been instrumental in helping Ireland rise above mediocrity and enter the conversation as one of the top teams in world rugby. Life moves on.

—oo0oo—

Italy versus Ireland, Saturday 15th., 14.15

Ireland make nine changes in personnel to their match day squad for the Italy match, with Hansen, Lowe, Ringrose, Crowley, Ryan and Conan starting, and Furlong, Gus McCarthy, and Jack Boyle forming an entirely new front row on the bench. (If only all had been available for the France Match!). I’m surprised Ireland haven’t gone the whole hog and given Caolan Blade a run off the bench and either Ryan Baird or Cian Prendergast a place on the bench instead of O’Mahony. Would that have weakened the team significantly? What good purpose is now served by giving Murray and O’Mahony another cap?

Italy are coming off a good win against Wales, defeats to Scotland and England, and a hammering by France. In Brex and Menoncello they have possibly the best centre paring in the Championship, and the rest of their back line isn’t bad. But their defence has been porous, and their pack well beaten by England and France.

Italy Manager Gonzalo Quesada has rotated his bench and starting XV, with Captain Michele Lamaro surprisingly dropped to the bench. Other than that, this looks like the best team Italy have fielded this Six Nations with Capuozzo back in his best position on the wing and Ioane fit as well. Italy could give Ireland a hard time if we haven’t fully recovered from the France debacle.

Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex (c), 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti

Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Joshua Zilocchi, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 Michele Lamaro, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Leonardo Marin

IRELAND: Hugo Keenan (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht); James Ryan (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Jack Conan (Leinster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, capt).

Replacements: Gus McCarthy (Leinster), Jack Boyle (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Conor Murray (Munster), Sam Prendergast (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht).

Wales versus England 16.45

England can still win the Championship if they win with a bonus point and France lose. Even a win without a bonus point will suffice if France lose and Ireland fail to win with a bonus point and make good a 7 point points difference deficit. I wouldn’t take an England win in Cardiff for granted, poor and all as Wales have been this season, but they have to be considered favourites.

Following their best attacking performance of the championship against Italy, England have replaced the injured Ollie Lawrence by moving right wing, Tommy Freeman, to 13, where he is replaced by Tom Roebuck. Marcus Smith is restored to full back with Elliot Day moving to left wing instead of Ollie Sleightholme, presumably to counter Gareth Anscombe’s kicking game. There is no place for Henry Slade in a squad which looks a mite unbalanced with four openside, three fly‑halves, two second-rows and one specialist centre.

Matt Sherratt has made two changes to the starting XV that lost to Scotland in round four. The injured Tom Rogers is replaced by fellow Scarlet Joe Roberts, who earns his first start at Test level. Aaron Wainwright come into the back row for Tommy Reffell with Jac Morgan switching over to his more usual position of openside.

Wales XV: Blair Murray; Ellis Mee, Max Llewellyn, Ben Thomas, Joe Roberts; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Nicky Smith, Elliot Dee, WillGriff John, Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins, Aaron Wainwright, Jac Morgan (captain), Taulupe Faletau.

Replacements: Dewi Lake, Gareth Thomas, Keiron Assiratti, Teddy Williams, Tommy Reffell, Rhodri Williams, Jarrod Evans, Nick Tompkins.

England: 15. Marcus Smith (Harlequins) 14. Tom Roebuck (Sale) 13. Tommy Freeman (Northampton) 12. Fraser Dingwall (Northampton) 11. Elliot Daly (Saracens) 10. Fin Smith (Northampton) 9. Alex Mitchell (Northampton) 1. Ellis Genge (Bristol, vice-capt.) 2. Luke Cowan-Dickie (Sale) 3. Will Stuart (Bath) 4. Maro Itoje (Saracens, capt.) 5. Ollie Chessum (Leicester) 6. Tom Curry (Sale) 7. Ben Curry (Sale) 8. Ben Earl (Saracens)

Replacements: 16. Jamie George (Saracens, vice-capt.) 17. Fin Baxter (Harlequins) 18. Joe Heyes (Leicester) 19. Chandler Cunningham-South (Harlequins) 20. Henry Pollock (Northampton) 21. Tom Willis (Saracens) 22. Jack van Poortvliet (Leicester) 23. George Ford (Sale)

France versus Scotland 20.00

France, playing last, have the advantage of knowing exactly what they will have to do to win the title, and may not even have to win this match if Ireland and England lose. One presumes even France can’t mess up to an even greater degree than they did against England. Galthié has named an unchanged squad except for Lucu and Fickou replacing the injured Dupont and Barassi, with Le Garrec coming onto the bench. With Jegou having shown he can play centre, they have persisted with their 7:1 bench split. I fear for the Scottish pack despite their 6:2 bench split.

For Scotland, Gregor Brown comes in for Jonny Gray in the second-row, whilst Matt Fagerson will start at number eight in place of Jack Dempsey, who misses the Test through injury. Marshall Sykes and Ben Muncaster will make their Six Nations debut if deployed from the bench. It could be a baptism of fire.

France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt (C), 7 Paul Boudehent, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Mickael Guillard, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Uini Atonio 2, Peato Mauvaka, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros

Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyrill Baille, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Hugo Auradou, 20 Emmanuel Meafou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Antony Jelonch, 23 Nolann le Garrec

Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman

Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Jonny Gray, 20 Marshall Sykes, 21 Ben Muncaster, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Stafford McDowall