History in the making?

Ireland versus France: 14.15 Saturday 8^th. March

Twenty five years ago, in 2000, Brian O’Driscoll burst onto the scene to score a hat trick against France in Paris and give Ireland their first win there in 28 years. Seven years ago, in Paris in 2018, in the 83rd. minute and after a 41 phase attack, Sexton dropped a 45 metre drop goal to win the match. It may take heroics on a similar scale to effectively decide the Championship this Saturday.

Dupont versus, Gibson-Park, Alldritt versus Doris, Ramos against Keenan, Ntamack versus Prendergast, Atonio versus Porter, Boudehent versus Van Der Flier, Sheehan versus Mauvaka: everywhere you look there are world class players vying for supremacy. It makes the rest of the Six Nations matches look distinctly second division.

Ireland have been good for the first half against Scotland and the second half against England and Wales, but pretty ropey otherwise. France were cocky and profligate against England but produced the competition’s most scintillating rugby in comprehensive 43- 0 and 73-24 demolitions of Wales and Italy.

One suspects France have the higher ceiling, but can they put in all together on the day? With Healy, Murray and O’Mahony all retiring, Ireland know it’s now or never for this group of players. Every second counts, and if added incentive were needed, they could make history by being the first country to ever win the competition outright three years in a row – in all its guises since 1873.

In the modern era, since the 5 Nations became the 6 Nations in 2000, England have won the Championship 7 times: Ireland, France, and Wales 6 times each, and Scotland and Italy not at all. However, Ireland lead the table with 85 wins out of 125 matches played since 2000, ahead of England on 82, France 80, Wales 64, Scotland 41 and Italy 15.

When you consider that Ireland (on 25) still lead the table for wooden spoons since 1873, you realise just how unprecedented our current ascendancy is. Our last wooden spoon came in 1998. Never before have we had such a collection of arguably world class players in almost every position, and it may be a long time before we see their like again. Enjoy it while we can!

Ireland have decided to meet the French 7:1 bench split halfway by going for a 6:2 bench split with only Murray and Crowley covering the backline positions, although O’Mahony has played wing before when Ireland had an injury crisis and lost to Italy in 2013.

At my suggestion (ed?) Jamie Osborne has been selected on the right wing to counter France’s cross kicking threat and to provide Prendergast with a kicking target. He will have his hand’s full with Bielle-Biarrey and won’t be able to catch him from behind. But Bielle-Biarrey has been vulnerable to the high ball and Osborne has several inches of a hight advantage on him. Munster fans will be disappointed Calvin Nash, who has never let Ireland down, didn’t get the call, but Osborne will provide cover from 11 to 15 in case of injuries elsewhere. It seems you have to be at least six foot three inches to make it in test rugby, these days.

The other major issues are that Furlong and Kelleher were not passed fit which means that Ireland are again relying on Clarkson off the bench. He did not have a good match against Wales and his scrummaging remains a major concern. I had expected O’Toole to return. The experienced Rob Herring has been preferred to Gus McCarthy on the bench, but I suspect Bealham and Sheehan are in for a long shift. Otherwise, the team is as expected with Conan and Crowley having to be satisfied with a role off the bench.

France will target Osborne and Clarkson and their 7 bench forwards will seek to subdue the Irish pack as a whole. However, that makes them very vulnerable to injuries to their back line, and it seems a strange risk for them to take with absences for HIAs so prevalent in the modern game. Their midfield defence was also breached by Italy, so Aki and Henshaw will try to make a breakthrough there. Ireland have chosen to kick much more this season, and Prendergast can be expected to deploy his full range of dinks and flicks as well as the occasional 50:22 attempt. In Ramos, he is up against the best place kicker in the world.

Personally, I find this match too close to call. Hopefully, it will not be decided by injuries or cards, and there is virtually no room for error. Gaining the upper hand early may be key. Nothing less than an 80 minute performance will do for Ireland this time around. This is the last hurrah for Healy, Murray and O’Mahony. Hopefully it will be a performance worthy of their distinguished careers.

Ireland: Hugo Keenan; Jamie Osborne, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Finlay Bealham; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).

Replacements: Rob Herring, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Ryan Baird, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley.

FRANCE: Ramos; Penaud, Barassi, Moefana, Bielle-Biarrey; Ntamack, Dupont (capt); Gros, Mauvaka, Atonio; Flament, Guillard; Cros, Boudehent, Alldrit.

Replacements: Marchand, Baille, Aldegheri, Meafou, Auradou, Jegou, Jelonch, Lucu.

—oo0oo—

Scotland versus Wales 16.45 Saturday 8^th. March

Elsewhere Scotland play Wales and England play Italy and you would expect home wins in each game. But part of the allure of the Six Nations is that it often throws up unexpected results. England are not as good as recent one point wins against France and Scotland might suggest, and Wales not as bad as their horrendous 15 match losing streak might indicate.

Scotland bring back Darcy Graham after his concussion against Ireland while Wales field an unchanged starting XV after their encouraging display against Ireland. However, Tommy Reffell and lock Dafydd Jenkins are the only starting survivors from their dramatic 27-26 defeat against Scotland in Cardiff last year. It just shows you the turmoil Welsh rugby has undergone. On balance, you would have to favour Scotland. They are due a good performance, and Wales may have reached their ceiling against Ireland.

SCOTLAND: B Kinghorn; D Graham, H Jones, T Jordan, D Van der Merwe; F Russell, B White; P Schoeman, D Cherry, Z Fagerson; J Gray, G Gilchrist; J Ritchie, R Darge, J Dempsey.

Replacements: E Ashman, R Sutherland, W Hurd, G Brown, M Fagerson, G Horne, K Rowe, S McDowall.

WALES: B Murray; T Rogers, M Llewellyn, B Thomas, E Mee; G Anscombe, Tomos Williams; N Smith, E Dee, W John; W Rowlands, D Jenkins; J Morgan, T Reffell, T Faletau.

Replacements: D Lake, G Thomas, K Assiratti, Teddy Williams, A Wainwright, R Williams, J Evans, J Roberts.

—oo0oo—

England versus Italy 15.00 Sunday 9^th. March

England have dropped Marcus Smith to a 6:2 split bench and replaced Henry Slade with Fraser Dingwall as Borthwick picks a largely Northampton backline to improve the cohesion of his attack. It’s quite a fall from grace for Marcus Smith who has lost his 10 shirt to Finn Smith and his 15 shirt to Elliot Daly. His route back to the team will be even more difficult when George Furbank comes back from injury. Having been England’s star back, his Lion’s place must now be in doubt. It still seems strange that a team playing such stilted rugby should drop their most creative back. The Twickenham crowd will not be pleased. England’s other change is to rotate Jamie George and Luke Cowan-Dickie in an otherwise unchanged pack.

The Italian team has not been released at the time of writing but I doubt they will make many changes despite the shellacking by France. They simply don’t have the strength in depth to make wholesale changes. That said, their backline is pretty good, and manufactured some good tries against France on a meagre ration of possession. The English pack should be too good for Italy, but I wouldn’t put it past the Italians to score a few tries off turnover ball.

ENGLAND (v Wales): E Daly; T Freeman, O Lawrence, F Dingwall, O Sleightholme; F Smith, A Mitchell; E Genge, J George, W Stuart; M Itoje (capt), O Chessum; T Curry, B Earl, T Willis.

Replacements: L Cowan-Dickie, F Baxter, J Heyes, T Hill, C Cunningham-South, B Curry, J van Poortvliet, M Smith.

—oo0oo—

Ireland u. 20 versus France u20: Friday 20.00 RTE2.

Head Coach Neil Doak has made five changes to the team that lost to Wales last time out and stands at a lowly fourth place in the table. Tom Wood, son of the legendary Keith, makes his first start at 10. It’s seems unlikely that Ireland will be able to reverse some indifferent performances against a strong France team many of whom have Top 14 experience. France seem to blood their best players at a much younger age while many of the Ireland squad don’t even have academy contracts yet. I hope I am wrong, but this doesn’t seem a vintage year for budding test talent in the Irish team.

IRELAND UNDER-20: D Green (Queen’s); C Molony (UCD), G O’Leary Kareem (UCC), E Smyth (Cork Constitution), C Mangan (Blackrock); T Wood (Garryowen), W Wootton (Sale); B Bohan (Corinthians), M Yarr (Lansdowne), A Mullan (Blackrock College); M Ronan (Old Wesley), B Corrigan (Old Wesley); M Foy (UCC), B Power (Galwegians), É McCarthy (Galwegians, capt).

Replacements: H Walker (Queen’s), P Moore (Blackrock College), T McAllister (Ballynahinch), C Kennelly (Highfield), D Walsh (Terenure), C Logan (Queen’s), S Wisniewski (Old Belvedere), C Fahy (Clontarf).

FRANCE UNDER-20: J Etchegary; T Leveque, S Daunivucu, F Brau-Boirie, N Donguy; L Keletaona, B Tilloles; S Jean-Christophe, L Akrab, M Megherbi; B Sanson, C Mezou (capt); A Deliance, N Traversier, B Britz.

Replacements: Q Algay, E Jaba Njocke, J-Y Liufau, J Nguimbous, S Tolofua, S Daroque, J Cotarmanac’h, O Cowie.