Fun with numbers – iPolitics

Good evening to you.

We’ve officially entered the final week of the election campaign after an eventful long weekend that saw both the Liberals and NDP unveil their election platforms, leaving the Conservatives as the only party yet to release a costed plan.

However, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre began the day with a campaign stop in Vaughan, Ont., where he officially released his party’s platform, highlighted by a plan to reduce the national deficit to $14.2 billion within the next four years.

The 30-page document mostly consisted of previously announced proposals, like eliminating the GST on all new homes under $1.3 billion, scrapping the industrial carbon price, and repealing the Impact Assessment Act (formally Bill C-69).

Among the notable new commitments was a pledge to pass the “Taxpayer Protection Act,” which the party said would “ban new or higher federal taxes without asking taxpayers first in a referendum.”

During the ensuing question-and-answer period, Poilievre was asked about his party’s projected $20 billion in revenue from countervailing tariffs, which was the same figure included in the Liberal platform. However, Poilievre has already earmarked the revenue to supports directed at industries impacted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.

In his response, Poilievre seemed to reaffirm that would be part of the plan for the money, but it would also go to cover the cost of all the other tax cuts that his government would bring in. He did not address another point brought up by the reporter, however: his pledge to push for a ‘pause’ on tariffs as part of the early renegotiation of the continental trade deal that he’ll push for.

Meanwhile, Liberal Leader Mark Carney was in Trois-Rivières, Que., where he said the numbers underlying Poilievre’s plan were “phantom numbers” and “a joke.”

You can keep up with all the news by checking out iPolitics‘ live blog, which will run everyday until the federal election. Also, stay tuned to our daily Campaign Countdown newsletter for a recap of the day’s events. You can find that here.

In fact, the Liberal leader wasn’t the only one offering a critique of Poilievre’s platform on Tuesday, as some of Canada’s leading economists questioned various revenue streams included in the Conservative Party’s recently released election platform.

Economists Mike Moffatt and Kevin Milligan were among those who expressed concern that the Conservative projections are rooted in overly-optimistic savings estimates associated with eliminating various pre-existing policies.

For example, the Conservative platform includes nearly $1 billion in expected savings over the next four years from repealing the Impact Assessment Act (formerly known as Bill C-69), which Pierre Poilievre has blamed for blocking energy development across the country over the previous decade.

The party is also projecting significant savings from eliminating the industrial carbon tax ($8.2 billion over the next four years), scrapping the Liberal government’s electric-vehicle mandate ($11.2 billion), as well as getting rid of the oil and gas emissions cap ($3.95 billion).

For Moffatt, an economist and founding director of the Missing Middle Initiative, the Conservatives flouted what he called “standard operating procedure” by factoring projected economic growth when calculating the party’s planned annual deficits, adding that the party was having “fun with numbers.”

“In and of itself, this is not an unreasonable thing to do,” Moffatt said in an interview with iPolitics. “If the economy grows, we know that the government’s budgetary position gets better. They collect more revenue [and] they have to spend less money with stronger economic growth.”

“The challenge is that the magnitude of the numbers they’re projecting just isn’t particularly realistic.”

Davis Legree has more on that.

Also, in the upcoming federal election, the Conservatives have an opportunity to achieve one of the rarest feats in Canadian electoral politics — flipping the Yukon.

Since 1957, the Yukon has only changed parties four times. Progressive Conservative MP Erik Nielsen represented the riding for 30 years until 1987, when Yukoners voted for Audrey McLaughlin, a New Democrat who held office for a decade. Meanwhile, in the last eight elections, the territory has elected exclusively Liberals, with the sole exception being Conservative Ryan Leef, who served in Parliament from 2011 to 2015.

Generally speaking, when the Yukon changes its preferred party, the riding stays that way for several elections. In anticipation of next Monday’s vote, Liberal MP Brendan Hanley is hoping that trend will again hold true.

Legree also has more on that in our latest Battleground Breakdown. 

In Other Headlines

Internationally

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio unveiled a massive overhaul of the State Department on Tuesday, with plans to reduce domestic staff by 15 per cent while closing and consolidating more than 100 bureaus worldwide as part of the Trump administration’s “America First” mandate.

The reorganization plan, announced by Rubio on social media, is the latest effort by the White House to reimagine U.S. foreign policy and scale back the size of the federal government.

The restructuring was driven in part by the need to find a new home for the remaining functions of the U.S. Agency for International Development, an agency that Trump administration officials and billionaire ally Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency have dismantled.

AP has more on that.

In other news, a popular saying in Vatican circles is that if you “enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal.”

It implies the sacred and secretive process is no popularity contest or campaign, but rather the divinely inspired election of Christ’s Vicar on Earth by the princes of the church.

Still, there are always front-runners, known as “papabile,” who have at least some of the qualities considered necessary to be pope — much like those depicted in last year’s Oscar-nominated film “Conclave.”

AP has more on the favourites to replace Pope Francis, who passed away on Monday.

In Other International Headlines

The Kicker

It’s Earth Day!

Today marked the 55th celebrating of the eco-friendly quasi-holiday, which was first established in 1970, so we’ll leave you tonight with a list of 19 Canadian books you can read to join in on the festivities, courtesy of the CBC.

And with that, we’ll see you tomorrow…