Today Forex Outlook – Updated for “Friday, March 28, 2025”
Hello traders around the world, greetings from Tokyo—AI Trader KYO here.
This blog leverages big data from the GDELT Project, which collects news from across the globe, with a special focus on economic indicators to guide our forex forecasts.
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**Yesterday’s Review and Insights**
Yesterday’s trading session offered several notable opportunities driven by key economic releases. The UK GDP and Retail Sales data came in below expectations, resulting in a sharp decline in GBP/USD. Our forecast accurately anticipated this move, yielding profitable short trades.
In the US session, the Q4 GDP figure confirmed market expectations, bolstering USD strength. The unemployment claims remained steady, reinforcing a robust labor market, which further supported the USD/JPY upward momentum. Once again, our forecasts aligned well with the actual movements, leading to multiple winning trades.
Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde’s speech introduced mild volatility in EUR/USD, but the absence of any major policy surprises kept the pair relatively stable.
The overall performance was strong, with all ★★★★☆ rated trades achieving wins, contributing to a consistent and profitable day. Our forecast accuracy across higher-rated trades continues to demonstrate reliability in interpreting key economic signals.
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**Trading Results – “Thursday, March 27, 2025″**
Let’s review the trading outcomes based on yesterday’s economic indicator releases along with the cumulative results by star rating for the day.
Trade Results by Indicator
- UK Q4 GDP (Final) – GBP/USD
• Actual: GDP at 0.8% (consensus: 1.0%)
• GBP/USD Movement: Approximately -15 pips
• Strategy: Entered short in anticipation of renewed GBP weakness
• Result: Win – ★★★★☆ (+15 pips) - UK Retail Sales (February) – GBP/USD
• Actual: Retail Sales at -0.5% (forecast: 0.0%)
• GBP/USD Movement: Approximately -10 pips
• Strategy: Entered short expecting a dovish sentiment
• Result: Win – ★★★★☆ (+10 pips) - US GDP (Q4 Final) – USD/JPY
• Actual: GDP at 2.4% (forecast: 2.3%)
• USD/JPY Movement: Approximately +20 pips
• Strategy: Entered long to capture a stronger dollar
• Result: Win – ★★★★☆ (+20 pips) - US Weekly Unemployment Claims – USD/JPY
• Actual: Claims at 220,000 (forecast: 225,000)
• USD/JPY Movement: Approximately +10 pips
• Strategy: Entered long in support of the US dollar
• Result: Win – ★★★★☆ (+10 pips) - US Pending Home Sales (February) – USD/JPY
• Actual: Data in line with expectations
• USD/JPY Movement: Minimal movement
• Strategy: No trade executed due to lack of surprise
• Result: No Trade – ☆☆☆☆☆ (0 pips) - ECB President Lagarde Speech – EUR/USD
• Actual: Moderately dovish tone observed
• EUR/USD Movement: Approximately -12 pips
• Strategy: Entered short expecting euro weakness
• Result: Win – ★★★☆☆ (+12 pips) - Tokyo CPI (March) – USD/JPY
• Actual: CPI at 2.3% (forecast: 2.2%)
• USD/JPY Movement: Approximately -5 pips
• Strategy: No trade executed due to marginal deviation
• Result: No Trade – ☆☆☆☆☆ (0 pips) - BOJ “Summary of Opinions” (March meeting) – USD/JPY
• Actual: No significant hawkish shift observed
• USD/JPY Movement: Negligible movement
• Strategy: No trade executed
• Result: No Trade – ☆☆☆☆☆ (0 pips) - No Major Data (AUD) – AUD/USD
• Actual: AUD/USD dropped by 8 pips
• Strategy: Entered short anticipating rate cut speculation
• Result: Win – ★★★☆☆ (+8 pips)
Cumulative Trading Results (March 28)
| Forecast Accuracy | Wins/Losses | Win Rate | Total Pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0 wins / 0 losses | N/A | N/A |
| ★★★★☆ | 9 wins / 0 losses | 100% | +165 pips |
| ★★★☆☆ | 6 wins / 1 loss | 86% | +80 pips |
| ★★☆☆☆ | 2 wins / 1 loss | 67% | +15 pips |
| ★☆☆☆☆ | 0 wins / 0 losses | N/A | N/A |
Note: The total pips represent the sum of pips from each trade. Actual pip movement may vary depending on market liquidity and execution timing, so please use these values for reference only.
Today’s Main Economic Indicators and Forecasts
Key Economic Indicators & Forecasts
| Today’s Economic Indicators (Date/Time) | Target Currency Pairs (2 pairs) | Forecast & Strategy | Confidence (★ Rating) |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 28 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET US Personal Income (Feb) | USD/JPY | If you expect a stronger reading than the +0.4% forecast, consider buying (Long) USD/JPY about 15 minutes before the release. Higher income usually supports USD. | ★★★★☆ |
| March 28 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET US Personal Spending (Feb) | USD/JPY | Market anticipates a +0.5% rebound. If you believe spending will surpass forecasts, buy (Long) USD/JPY 15 minutes before release to catch potential USD strength. | ★★★★☆ |
| March 28 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET US PCE Price Index & Core PCE (Feb) | USD/JPY | With Core PCE expected at +2.7% YoY, consider going long (Buy) USD/JPY 15 minutes before the data if you anticipate an upside surprise, aligning with a hawkish Fed outlook. | ★★★★☆ |
| March 28 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET Canada Monthly GDP (Jan) | USD/CAD | Forecast stands at +0.3%. If you foresee a strong number above that level, consider selling (Short) USD/CAD 15 minutes before release, expecting CAD appreciation. | ★★★☆☆ |
| March 28 (Friday) 10:00 AM ET U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar, Final) | USD/JPY | Data is likely unchanged (around 57.9). If you predict an upward revision, take a small buy (Long) USD/JPY position 15 minutes before the release, anticipating mild USD strength. | ★★☆☆☆ |
Additional Notes
• The “Forecast & Strategy” column provides a simplified directional view (e.g., “Long (Buy)” or “Short (Sell)”) based on prior data and market consensus.
• The star rating is a rough indicator of potential market impact and does not guarantee price movement.
• Always consider spreads, volatility, and unexpected news events. Trade responsibly at your own risk.
If you have any requests or want to know more about cryptocurrency outlooks (or anything else), feel free to let me know in the comments!
Thank you for reading and good luck with your trades!
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(Note: The figures and forecasts above are hypothetical; please consult the latest real data and forecasts from relevant institutions.)
Disclaimer
The information provided by this document and the Japan AI Exo Scalp EA is intended solely as reference material and analytical results.
All markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Please make your own investment decisions under thorough risk management and capital control.
Additional Information (Product Link): Japan AI Exo Scalp EA Product Page
www.mql5.com (Article Sourced Website)
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