Virginians are bracing for another onslaught of national politicians and pundits hell-bent to prove during the commonwealth’s upcoming off-year gubernatorial election that Donald Trump’s win in November was either a mandate or a fluke. And for once, there appeared to be a clear, primary-free, path for Republicans in the state to rally early around a single gubernatorial candidate.
But not so fast!
As February blustered toward her conclusion, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears’ position as the Republican’s de facto nominee to face former Democrat U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger was challenged by two former members of the General Assembly.
Former Republican Del. Dave LaRock announced that he was running to stop Virginia from becoming “California East,” accusing the lieutenant governor of failing to “deliver bold conservative leadership.”
Less than a week later, the third-place finisher in 2021’s COVID-19-restricted gubernatorial nominating convention, former state Sen. Amanda Chase, also tossed her red “Make America Great Again” baseball cap into the ring.
This puzzled some observers who had been heartened by early polling that had this bellwether race between Sears and Spanberger very close. An Emerson College poll released on Jan. 8 had Spanberger with only a one-point lead. Five days later, Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center poll had the margin at 5% for the former congresswoman.
The race was much tighter than many expected even though the “anti-MAGA” wave was already strong in places like liberal Northern Virginia, especially among all the Northern Virginia federal employees who had yet to experience the full weight of the staffing cuts being proposed by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
Republicans were cautiously optimistic.
Then, rather than a challenge from the centrists in the Republican Party, the challenges are coming from the right—and the further right.
LaRock of Loudoun County told The Daily Signal that his decision to run came after observing Sears as she presided over the Senate: “I didn’t see a fighter on important issues.”
He pointed to his record for taking on controversial bills and getting support from both sides of the aisle. For example, his patronage of Sage’s Law (HB 2432), which requires school employees to notify parents if a student is self-identifying as “a gender different from the student’s biological sex” and clarifies that treating children based on their actual sex does not constitute abuse or neglect.
Chase told Virginians that her jumping into the race was more structural than ideological, though she did remind The Daily Signal during our interview that she is known as “Trump in Heels.” She said that her decision was based on concerns over dysfunction in Sears’ gubernatorial campaign resulting in several staff turnovers.
“We need someone with a team already in place and the experience to battle toe-to-toe,” said Chase. Spanberger, an ex-CIA officer, brokered herself out of a primary challenge from Richmond’s former mayor, Levar Stoney, late last year.
Spanberger has been using the fact that she doesn’t have to run a primary race as an opportunity to reach out beyond her former constituents in the 7th Congressional District. She was frequently seen in the gallery of the Virginia Senate this past session “gathering intel” and building a statewide network of local coattails to campaign with.
One incident highlights Spanberger’s coordination of efforts that Chase was warning about. A bill (SB 1105) that would have guaranteed state-supported access to contraceptives was on the Virginia Senate floor when, surprisingly, a lone Democrat voted with Republicans to force a tiebreaking vote.
As is her constitutional responsibility, the lieutenant governor voted to break the tie. She voted along with the rest of the GOP to kill the bill—only to have that lone Democrat, state Sen. Jeremy McPike, use parliamentary privilege to call for a reconsideration of the bill.
The bill then passed on a party-line vote with McPike voting for it the second time around. Within minutes of that second vote, the Spanberger campaign had press statements on the way to Virginia newsrooms calling out Sears for her vote “denying Virginia women necessary health care.”
Was the original vote and the reconsideration all planned in advance to force Sears to make that tie-breaking vote so Spanberger could then capitalize on it?
Since the announcements of LaRock’s and Chase’s challenges to Sears’ run, the statewide GOP hasn’t yet decided whether to have an open primary or a nominating convention (despite new Virginia laws regarding open access and early voting requirements that make holding them nearly impossible).
It is also important to note that each candidate must collect 10,000 signatures with at least 400 from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts in order to appear on the ballot in November.
If the Republicans choose their gubernatorial candidate by primary, since Virginia voters don’t register by party, the worry among Republicans is, will Spanberger supporters try to sway the results and vote in the Republican primary to try to hand the weakest candidate the Republican nomination?
As February turned to March, a new poll by Cygnal still has the race close, with Spanberger holding a 6% lead. But the pollster notes that undecided voters “break for a generic Republican candidate by more than 2:1—a key opportunity for Sears. Fifty-two percent believe Virginia is headed in the right direction [under the current Republican governor], including 51% of independents.”
A spokesperson for the lieutenant governor told The Daily Signal, “She welcomes anyone that wishes to campaign,” and points out that she has “quickly built a coalition of supporters that have set her on a course to victory in any primary and on being the next governor of Virginia.”
One thing is certain, this nomination challenge means that spring in Virginia is not going to be dull.
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