Blue Jays FAQ: Making sense of latest Soto buzz

TORONTO – Bit by bit, MLB free agency is gaining momentum, with left-handers Yusei Kikuchi and Blake Snell agreeing to lucrative multi-year deals with the Los Angeles Angels and Dodgers, respectively. 

But while the pitching market has started moving, the winter’s top free-agent hitter remains unsigned, which means Juan Soto is very much the focal point of the off-season amidst building rumours and speculation about his next steps. Soto’s decision will certainly impact the Toronto Blue Jays, as they continue to engage with the 26-year-old and his agent, Scott Boras, who also represents Kikuchi, Snell, Corbin Burnes and Alex Bregman, among many others.

Their interest is real and they have made an offer in the initial blind bidding, but sources describe them as a dark horse, at best. Industry-wide, the Mets are viewed as favourites and the Yankees are seen as a legitimate option to win the competition about to unfold.

Bigger picture, the Blue Jays are hard to make sense of this winter.

They’re in on Soto, have interest in players such as Max Fried, Luis Severino, Anthony Santander and Bregman, yet president and CEO Mark Shapiro said in early October he expected payroll to be similar to what it was in 2024, most of that is already spoken for and there’s little certainty on the roster beyond next year. 

In the meantime, none of this team’s major needs have been addressed, which makes this a good time for some off-season FAQ:

Are we really going to do this with Soto after the Shohei Ohtani ordeal?

Time and again, this is a question we’ve heard from Blue Jays fans this off-season, in a sampling far more anecdotal than scientific. And fair enough. The Ohtani mess from a year ago has left a lot of scars and that’s understandably triggering a well-founded skepticism around an attempt to pry Soto from both the Yankees, his 2024 team, and the Mets.

Leaks suggesting that the Blue Jays, Red Sox or Dodgers are ‘determined’ or ‘aggressive’ are likely designed to increase pressure on the two New York teams, prompting them to move – a staple in the Boras playbook. It often works, but it doesn’t mean necessarily the non-New York teams can stomach the bidding war.

None of that means the Blue Jays wouldn’t legitimately like to add Soto. There’s no harm in putting their valuation on the table, seeing what happens and perhaps opening a pathway to one of Boras’s other intriguing clients (Sean Manaea really feels like the Blue Jays’ type) along the way.

But there’s a difference between making an offer and going into a negotiation determined to win, especially if the price starts to get uncomfortable. Adding to the degree of difficulty, the Blue Jays are coming off a last-place finish that likely makes their situation a little harder to sell unless they substantially outbid everyone else at the table.

Plus, where Ohtani went as far as visiting the Blue Jays in Dunedin, Fla., it’s still unclear how seriously Soto’s considering them, leaving open the real possibility that they’re simply a fallback plan and leverage play. And if that’s the case, it’s vitally important that the Blue Jays have some good fallback plans of their own.

So if Soto’s in play, how much money do they really have to spend?

This is where the murk about the Blue Jays really starts, so let’s try to follow the breadcrumbs of information gleaned thus far. On Oct. 2, Shapiro said he didn’t see the payroll “either growing or decreasing in a big way,” and indications are that still holds true. The club believes it finished under the $237-million Competitive Balance Tax threshold last season (MLB is still verifying those numbers), so there’s a rough marker for 2024 spending.

After non-tendering relievers Jordan Romano and Dillon Tate last week, FanGraphs’ RosterResource estimates their current guarantees and projected commitments at $203 million. Now, MLB’s CBT increases to $241 million in 2025, and assuming the Blue Jays stay around that threshold that leaves them approximately $38 million to work with if we’ve followed the breadcrumbs correctly – more if they free up salary via trades.

OK, but wouldn’t Soto alone cost more than that?

Yes, he would, a lot more, but the Blue Jays can stretch beyond that payroll for a special or unique opportunity. Soto definitely qualifies and that’s how Ohtani would have fit into last season’s budget, had he chosen Toronto. There may also be a few other scenarios in which they could push a little beyond their budget, perhaps something like a Fried and Santander combination. But worth remembering is just like with Ohtani a year ago, the Blue Jays can’t simply reallocate the money they’re trying to spend on Soto to other players.

It’s because of that unique dynamic that some rival executives and agents talking to the Blue Jays feel they’re poised to spend big, while others come away from talks convinced money is tight for them.

If they somehow add Soto, they’ll add pitching, too. But for all the talk about Soto, a more likely outcome for this off-season would appear to be something like this: $15-20 million for a starting pitcher, $10-20 million on a hitter and $5-10 million on bullpen help — moves likely to come later rather than sooner.

Is that why they non-tendered Jordan Romano?

Money was clearly a factor in the decision to non-tender Romano, who’s now a free agent a year earlier than expected. With a projected arbitration salary approaching $8 million, the Blue Jays cut him loose and while it feels a bit ruthless to let the Markham, Ont., native leave like that, it should be noted that the 29 other teams could have traded for him if they’d valued him at or above $8 million for 2025. The non-tender after his July elbow surgery strongly suggests other teams had similar reservations about committing that much money, though Romano will have a chance to prove them wrong with a strong 2025 season.

But after cutting Romano, Tate and Genesis Cabrera from the roster, the Blue Jays’ need for relief help has never been more glaring.

What do they do if Soto signs elsewhere?

Again, this is the most likely scenario, so it’s one the Blue Jays are preparing for even as they engage with Boras on top free agents like Soto. If he ends up with another team, the Blue Jays would simply move on to the next possibility on their list, be it Fried, Santander or someone else. If there’s alignment with one of those high-end players, we could see a significant deal.

Otherwise, this could drag out into the new year with the Blue Jays remaining patient and flexible — but without having addressed the major holes in their lineup and on their pitching staff. Eventually, the Blue Jays will add at least one hitter and some pitching. That much can be counted on.

Ideally, it might be an everyday power-hitting outfielder who bats left-handed plus a front-line starter. But the off-season is often an exercise in pivoting from ideal outcomes to acceptable ones, and that may well apply to the Blue Jays this winter. How skillfully they navigate that challenge will determine whether the next edition of the team can return to the post-season in 2025.