Cody Butler: There’s a strong case for not moving too far to the right just to chase Reform voters | Conservative Home

Cody Butler is the Chair of the One Nation Conservative Network, a grassroots organisation dedicated to advancing pragmatic and compassionate conservatism.

The 2024 Conservative Party Conference led to turbulence, with numerous consequences—including a growing argument over the party’s direction.

The prevailing assumption in the room was to fight for Reform Party voters and reverse defections. The wipeout of both Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly in favour of perceived right-wing candidates subsequently led to the collapse of the argument for the centre. This is a mistake that both damages our electoral prospects and fails to recognise the clear weaknesses in conceding the home ground of the Conservative Party.

It is easy to understand the argument for a shift to the right; 24 per cent of Conservative voter defections from 2019 went to the Reform Party, while only 19 per cent defected to the Liberal Democrats or Labour. However, the largest number of defections does not necessarily reflect what is politically viable.

The hardest pill for the Conservative Party to swallow may be that winning back Reform voters isn’t a fully achievable electoral outcome. What reason does someone who identifies with the ideological ideas of right-wing populism have to rejoin the Conservatives when they have exactly that in the Reform Party? The old adage of “vote Reform, get Labour” falls short when the party itself is the dominant opposition to Labour in the North.

Many may be tempted to argue that support for Reform is heavily dependent on the popularity of Nigel Farage. To an extent, this is true. However, it is also important to remember that by late February 2024, before the coronation of Farage as leader once more, a Savanta poll had already recorded Reform UK at 10 per cent. This is the equivalent of a national party at the same level as the Liberal Democrats—without its central populist leader.

For young Reform supporters, and young people as a whole, the Conservative Party has been in power for essentially as long as they can remember. The record of Conservative government since 2010—on the economy, public services, crime, corruption and immigration—will forever be remembered furiously as a failure. Exacerbated by social media, the damage is almost irrevocable.

The old pillars of the unbreakable first-past-the-post system managed to keep third-party revolts in check—for example, UKIP and others. But polarisation and the formation of new electoral cleavages have meant that many seats are no longer safe for either the Conservatives or Labour. This shift in voter behaviour makes a win like 2019 unlikely ever to happen again. It was a voting coalition characterised by political and ideological contradictions; what was once a big tent suddenly became very overcrowded.

The question of who should leave the tent has been answered for us. More right-leaning members might have liked to see the ‘wets’ leave for the Liberal Democrats, but instead, it is they who have left to join Reform—leaving us as a centre-oriented party. Hence, the argument to focus on being a ‘centre-right party’ and appealing to Labour and Liberal Democrat voters comes into play. So, let’s make the case for it.

Firstly, if we look at recent local elections, in the Tiptree by-election on 20th February 2025, Conservative councillor Will Calverly won with a 10.8 per cent gain. Reform made a 10 per cent gain, and, most importantly, Labour suffered a 15 per cent loss. These votes also did not drastically shift to other parties either, as both the Greens and Liberal Democrats also saw decreases. In the Abbots Langley and Bedmond by-election, the Conservatives won by 40 per cent from the Liberal Democrats, and Reform entered the scene for the first time with 13 per cent of the vote.

Secondly, Reform does not represent the values of our Conservative Party. We take pride in fiscal prudence, yet, as David Gauke has highlighted in previous articles, the IFS found that Reform’s 2024 manifesto was riddled with inaccuracies and figures that simply did not add up.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Rishi Sunak’s furlough scheme was widely considered a success in reducing redundancy. This outcome, however, is unlikely to have been achieved under Reform-led policy. According to YouGov polling in June 2024, 42 per cent of Reform voters were opposed to redistributing income from the better-off to those less well-off, compared to 33 per cent who believed the government should redistribute income.

Furthermore, according to YouGov polling in 2024, approximately 54 per cent of Reform respondents either denied that human activity was responsible for climate change or outright rejected the existence of climate change altogether. While the Conservative Party continues to debate the path to tackling climate change, even Kemi Badenoch recognises the necessity of addressing it. We are the party that legislated the Environment Act and has led numerous projects to promote sustainable energy.

In the aftermath of Brexit—whether you support it or not—we, as Conservatives, will always take a pragmatic approach to this country’s relationship with Europe. Can you imagine Nigel Farage going to Brussels to secure a fair trade deal? It is unlikely, as he would be constrained by his Eurosceptic base.

Meanwhile, when it comes to the European Court of Human Rights, there is a growing consensus that it has overstepped its original mandate. As Conservatives, we should support Tom Tugendhat’s sensible call for reforming the ECHR rather than resorting to the absolutist stance of leaving outright. The realities of Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement alone demand a pragmatic strategy. People should vote for us because we are sensible, reliable, and conservative. That means being pragmatic—something Reform’s Eurosceptic fanatics have no interest in. They want to tear it all apart. They are radicals, not conservatives.

In conclusion, it is important to stress that this article should not be seen as advocating a binary ideological shift. Electoral politics requires compromise, which may include recognising that there are still votes to be won from Reform. However, as a membership, this should not become an obsession when reality dictates that the safer and more secure option is to accept our position and focus on winning votes from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. After all, as Margaret Chase Smith put it:

“The right way is not always the popular and easy way. Standing for right when it is unpopular is a true test of moral character.”