Why the SET Dropped Below 1,200: A Perfect Storm Shakes Thailand’s Stock Market – Thailand Business News

As of March 3, 2025, the SET index closed at 1,188.41, down 15.31 points, with a trading volume of 8,976 million shares valued at 45,011.92 million Baht. Institutional buying led by 3,294.15 million Baht, while foreign trading saw a net sell of 4,964.40 million Baht. Top performers included DELTA, ADVANC, BBL, CPALL, and KBANK.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) closed below the psychologically significant 1,200-point mark today, sending ripples of concern through investors and analysts alike. The benchmark index, which has been under pressure for weeks, ended the trading session at a level not seen in recent memory, reflecting a confluence of domestic and international factors that have battered market sentiment.

Key Points

• Market Overview:
  As of 3rd March 2025, the market closed with the SET index at 1,188.41, down by 15.31 points. The SET50 index registered at 755.38, showing a decrease of 11.32 points. Other indices such as SET100 and sSET also experienced declines, with the SETTRI index ending at 9,095.23, down by 89.47 points since 28th February 2025.
• Trading and Value Summary:
  The accumulated trading value reached 74,436.98 million Baht. Institutional investors showed a net buy of 3,294.15 million Baht, while foreign investors had a net sell of 4,964.40 million Baht. Proprietary traders also reported a net sell of 694.34 million Baht, whereas individual investors posted a net buy of 2,364.59 million Baht.
• Top 5 Stocks:
  • DELTA: Priced at 71.25 Baht, down 7.77%, with a trading value of 2,669 million Baht.
  • ADVANC: At 271.00 Baht, decreased by 1.81%, valued at 2,277 million Baht.
  • BBL: Ending at 148.50 Baht, declined by 1.98%, with 1,970 million Baht trading value.
  • CPALL: Priced at 52.50 Baht, down by 2.78%, trading value at 1,911 million Baht.
  • KBANK: Closed at 152.50 Baht, increased by 0.66%, with a trading value of 1,593 million Baht.

Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake Global Confidence

One of the primary catalysts for the SET’s decline has been the renewed uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric. Reports from international outlets like Bloomberg indicate that Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China have rattled global markets, with emerging economies like Thailand feeling the heat. Thailand, heavily reliant on exports—particularly to the U.S. and China—faces the risk of reduced demand for its goods, a prospect that has spooked foreign investors. Posts on X have echoed this sentiment, with users noting that the SET’s drop aligns with broader fears of a global trade war.

Foreign Investors Flee, Domestic Funds Follow

The numbers tell a stark story. Since the start of 2025, foreign investors have offloaded nearly 20 billion baht (approximately $570 million USD) worth of Thai stocks, a trend highlighted by local market watchers on X. This exodus has been compounded by domestic institutional selling, particularly as Long-Term Equity Funds (LTFs) reached their maturity dates. Investors, facing losses, have opted to cut their positions rather than hold on, further driving the index downward. The absence of a major support level below 1,200 has left the market vulnerable, with some analysts warning that a failure to rebound above this threshold could signal deeper bearish sentiment ahead.

MSCI Rebalancing Adds Pressure

Adding fuel to the fire, the latest MSCI index rebalancing has contributed to the SET’s woes. The periodic adjustment, which recalibrates the weight of Thai stocks in global portfolios, has led to increased volatility. According to a statement from the Stock Exchange of Thailand reported by Thansettakij, the rebalancing prompted significant outflows as funds adjusted their holdings, amplifying the selling pressure. While not the sole driver, this technical factor has exacerbated an already fragile market environment.

Weak Economic Signals at Home

Domestically, Thailand’s economic outlook has failed to inspire confidence. Investors are eagerly awaiting January data on industrial production, imports, exports, trade balance, and current account, due later today. However, early indications suggest a slowdown, with the Thai stock market already pricing in weaker fundamentals. The SET’s recent trajectory—down nearly 40 points or 3.2% over a few days, as noted by Nasdaq—reflects growing unease about the country’s economic resilience amid global headwinds. Companies like Banpu (-3.72%) and Advanced Info (-1.40%) saw sharp declines today, underscoring the broad-based nature of the sell-off.

A Glimmer of Hope?

Despite the gloom, there were pockets of resilience. Stocks like Bangkok Dusit Medical (+5.60%) and Bangkok Expressway (+4.92%) bucked the trend, suggesting that selective buying persists in defensive or high-growth sectors. However, these gains were insufficient to offset the broader market’s decline. Analysts remain cautious, with some, as cited in posts on X, arguing that no significant rebound is in sight unless global uncertainties subside or domestic economic data surprises to the upside.

What’s Next for the SET?

The SET’s breach of 1,200 marks a critical juncture for Thailand’s financial markets. Investors are now watching closely to see if the index can reclaim this level in the coming days, a move that could restore some confidence. Failing that, the lack of a strong technical floor might pave the way for further losses. For now, the combination of Trump’s tariff threats, foreign and institutional selling, MSCI adjustments, and domestic economic concerns has created a perfect storm—one that Thailand’s stock market is struggling to weather.

As of today, the global markets are exhibiting a mixed performance amid a blend of economic signals, geopolitical tensions, and investor sentiment. Major stock indices across Asia, Europe, and the Americas are reflecting these dynamics, with varying degrees of fluctuation.

In Asia, stock markets extended their rally as positive economic data from China buoyed investor confidence. The Shanghai Composite Index gained ground following reports of increased manufacturing activity, indicating a potential stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy. Similarly, Japan’s Nikkei 225 saw a modest rise, supported by tech stocks and an upbeat outlook on export-driven growth.

European markets opened with cautious optimism, aided by strong quarterly earnings from major corporations. The STOXX Europe 600 Index edged higher, driven by gains in the energy and banking sectors. Nonetheless, the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe and uncertainties surrounding energy supplies weigh heavily on market sentiment, alongside persistent inflationary pressures.

Across the Atlantic, Wall Street is poised to open on a mixed note as investors digest the latest economic data and corporate earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures have shown slight increases, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq futures marked a marginal decline. Key economic indicators, such as retail sales figures and jobless claims, will be closely scrutinized for insights into the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

Commodities also submitted a varied performance; crude oil prices rose slightly on expectations of heightened demand, while gold remained stable as investors sought safer assets amidst global uncertainties. In the currency markets, the US dollar maintained its strength against major counterparts, reflecting its status as a haven amidst global economic challenges.

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