Self-inflicted extinction: How the NDP and Greens engineered their downfalls – iPolitics

Canada’s political landscape is on the brink of an historic reckoning. For decades, third and fourth parties have shaped—and often muddied—federal elections, positioning themselves as protest vehicles, ideological purists, or kingmakers in minority Parliaments. But as Election Day approaches, the NDP and Greens appear poised to collapse to their lowest popular vote shares in generations. If predictions are accurate, this won’t be a mere cyclical decline; but rather, a self-inflicted crisis born of a betrayal of principle. Their downfall, however, offers Canada an opportunity to shed the dysfunction of fragmented politics and embrace the clarity of a de facto two-party system — one that would strengthen democracy and benefit both of the major parties in the long run.

Consider the numbers. Since 1980, the NDP has averaged 16.5 per cent of the popular vote, a figure that includes the high-water mark of Jack Layton’s 2011 “Orange Wave,” when the party captured 30.6 per cent. The Greens, meanwhile, have never been more than a marginal force, peaking at 6.5 per cent in 2019. Even the Reform Party and Progressive Conservatives —precursors to today’s united Conservative Party — collectively averaged 20 to 25 per cent in the 1990s before merging to challenge Liberal hegemony. Today, the CBC’s poll aggregator puts the NDP at 8.5 per cent, almost half their historical average support, while the Greens are at 2.3 per cent, nearly one third of their historical high-water mark.

The NDP’s decline is a case study in Faustian bargains. By propping up Justin Trudeau’s minority government since 2021 through a confidence-and-supply agreement, Jagmeet Singh traded his party’s soul for fleeting influence. In exchange for dental care and temporary pharmacare — policies the Liberals might have conceded even without the coalition to avoid an election— the NDP abandoned its historic role as a vocal opposition party. Once a champion of working-class Canadians, it has become a Liberal auxiliary force, rubber-stamping everything from deficit spending to climate policies that alienate its traditional base in resource-dependent regions. The consequences are clear: Multiple pre-election polls showed a majority of Canadians opposed the Liberal-NDP pact, with even NDP supporters expressing frustration.

The NDP’s collapse is not monolithic. Disillusioned NDP voters aren’t simply staying home or drifting to the Liberals; they’re joining a growing Conservative coalition. Working-class Canadians, and rural populists in BC and Ontario, once loyal to the NDP’s economic populism, now flock to a CPC focused on affordability and jobs. Young voters, priced out of housing and skeptical of performative progressive gestures, are the fastest-growing demographic in Conservative support, with polls showing Pierre Poilievre’s CPC now competitive with the Liberals among voters under 35.

But the Greens’ problems run deeper. Once a party that claimed to “rise above partisanship,” they’ve devolved into a Liberal stalking horse. Their decision to drop 15 candidates in Ontario and British Columbia — explicitly to help Liberals defeat Conservatives — exposed their hypocrisy. This “strategic” move to block Conservatives confirmed what skeptics long suspected: the Greens prioritize anti-conservative fearmongering over their environmental mandate. Voters have responded accordingly. The party’s support has cratered, and their exclusion from the leaders’ debates is cementing their descent into irrelevance. By abandoning principle for tactical games, the Greens have alienated their base and shattered their credibility.

The collapse of these parties is not a loss for democracy — it’s a correction. Canada’s experiment with multiparty fragmentation has produced a decade of unstable minorities, backroom deals, and watered-down agendas. A de facto two-party system would restore accountability: voters would know exactly who to reward or punish.

While some assume that this change would accrue to the Liberals, Conservatives also stand to gain. Similar to how the merger of the Canadian Alliance and PC parties in 2003 formed a more competitive national coalition, the CPC has concentrated on appealing to fatigued voters disillusioned by Liberal shortcomings, resulting in fewer votes diverted to fringe parties. This isn’t about ideological purity; it’s about presenting a compelling alternative to a governing party that has lost its way.

To those who lament the decline of third parties, I pose a question: What have they actually achieved? The NDP’s pact with the Liberals has delivered little beyond temporary programs that the next government could scrap. The Greens’ climate rhetoric has done nothing to reduce emissions, which remain 10 per cent above 2005 levels. Meanwhile, both parties have enabled a government that presides over an affordability crisis, collapsing healthcare, and a housing shortage.

The path forward is clear. Voters are rejecting the Liberal-NDP-Green axis not out of extremism, but exhaustion. They crave stability, accountability, and leaders who don’t treat politics as a game of tactical spoils. The decline of third parties isn’t the end of democracy; it’s the start of its renewal.